UFC: Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili Betting Analysis and Prediction
One of Great Britain’s prized MMA athletes, Nathaniel Wood, is back this weekend, where he will take on the highly-skilled Andre Fili in the featherweight division. This is just one of many exciting upcoming UFC fights in London this weekend.
Read more for the betting analysis, and the official Wood vs Fili betting prediction ahead of making your UFC picks this weekend.
Nathaniel Wood vs Andre Fili
Location of the game: O2 Arena, London, England
Date and Time: Saturday, July 22. 3:00 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Wood is coming off a masterclass performance against Charles Jourdain on the UFC Paris card last September.
Fili also fought last September, where he beat Bill Algeo via split decision at UFC Fight Night 210.
If you’ve watched Nathaniel Wood compete last year, you know how skilled this kid is. He has seemed to level up after taking a couple of years off during the pandemic. He is 19-5 with 14 finishes at age 29. Even as he stands at 5’6”, his size doesn’t hold him back at 145 lbs.
Wood averages a very impressive 6.34 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.42. He fights at a high pace and throws a high volume of strikes. To mix things up, Wood also averages 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon–along with a 73% takedown defense. He is one of the most all-around talents the featherweight division has right now.
Fili is a talented UFC veteran that trains with Team Alpha Male where he continues to level up in his skillset. At age 33, he has accumulated a record of 22-9 with 12 finishes under his belt. He’s 2-3 in his last 5 fights but is always a tough matchup for anybody that he faces. Oddly enough, Fili seems to have a trend of getting into close fights; he has had 4 split decisions since 2018.
The experienced Fili will have a height and reach advantage of 5 inches in this matchup. That won’t matter much because he is nowhere near a world-class striker. He averages more significant strikes absorbed than he lands. His best asset is his wrestling–averaging 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes.
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
This matchup has very interesting betting lines that seem too close. According to UFC odds, Nathaniel Wood is only a -190 betting favorite over the +165 Andre Fili. The Wood vs Fili betting prediction becomes much easier to make with this money line.
The over 2.5 rounds total is heavily favored at -240, but this fight ending inside the distance is only +160. You can get Wood winning a decision at +120, which seems almost too good to be true.
From a technical standpoint, Wood is seemingly levels above Fili. Fili has the experience and physical, measurable advantage, but if he can’t use that, it doesn’t matter. Fili doesn’t have the striking ability or submission skills to be a threat with those long limbs.
Wood has the speed advantage and the skillset to beat pretty much anybody up until the very top of the division right now. This is a necessary step up in his journey to the top of the division, and he gets to do it in front of a 100% home crowd.
Fili is not to be overlooked, though. He has very good wrestling abilities and is one of the toughest fighters on the roster. It’s just a tough matchup for him.
- As you can probably tell by now, the Wood vs Fili betting prediction is that Wood will get the job done on Saturday night in London.
He is very good and is just hitting the beginning of his prime. This is a tough time for anybody to get in his way.
Since the moneyline is -190, that pick is just fine; but if you want to bet on Wood by a decision at +120 that would be a great pick. It’s also possible Wood will chase a finish, and you can get him at +330 to win inside the distance. That is the pick to make along with his moneyline.
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