O'Malley vs Vera 2 UFC 299 Fight Prediction & Best Bets

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06 March 2024

O'Malley vs Vera 2 UFC 299 Fight Prediction & Best Bets

This O’Malley vs Vera 2 prediction for UFC 299 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the UFC to wrestling and everything in between.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Miami this weekend for the first time since April 2023 for UFC 299. As we approach one of the most stacked cards in a long time, most MMA enthusiasts are looking forward to Sean O’Malley defending the UFC Bantamweight title against Marlon Vera in the main event.

Saturday night will mark O’Malley’s first-ever defense while also being Vera’s first shot at UFC gold. Will the main event end the same way as their first clash back in 2020? Only time will tell.

Let’s discuss the upcoming O’Malley vs. Vera clash by diving into my UFC 299 main event predictions and best bets.

UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera 2 Betting Odds

UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera 2 prediction and best bets

UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 odds are as of Wednesday, March 6 at 11:58 a.m. ET.

O’Malley vs Vera 2 Moneyline

Sean O’Malley (-275)
Marlon Vera (+235)

Will O’Malley vs Vera 2 Go the Distance?

O’Malley vs Vera Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-155)
Under 4.5 Rounds (+125)

O’Malley vs Vera 2 Tale of the Tape

Record: 17-1, 1 NC — 23-8-1
Height: 5’11” — 5’8”
Reach: 72” — 70”
Weight: 135 lbs — 135 lbs
Age: 29 — 31
Fighting Stance: Switch — Switch
Knockouts: 12 — 8

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera 2 Fight Preview

It isn’t hard to see that oddsmakers love the idea of O’Malley retaining in Miami. The champion’s -275 moneyline odds to defeat Vera on BetOnline carry an implied win probability of 73.3%.

The Helena, MT native didn’t have the best luck when he faced his challenger nearly four years ago, though. Vera handed O’Malley his only career loss at UFC 252, TKO’ing the latter after O’Malley’s leg gave out, opening the door for a knockout.

Having said that, even medical experts say that O’Malley’s leg giving out was a freak accident.[su=youtube url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDTIfoffUFU&pp=ygUNbydtYWxsZXkgdmVyYQ%3D%3D” responsive= “yes” autoplay= “no”]

Ever since losing to Vera, O’Malley has been on a roll, going 5-0 with a no-contest in his last six fights with four of those wins coming via KO/TKO. In fact, it was a second-round TKO that won “Suga” the bantamweight title from Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292.

Vera, on the other side, has gone 5-2 across seven outings since that initial fight. He’s overcome the likes of Rob Font and Davey Grant during that stretch and is also coming off a unanimous decision victory over Pedro Munhoz back in August.

When it comes to physical attributes, O’Malley has the advantage of standing three inches taller with a two-inch reach edge.

The champion is also the better striker, averaging 7.25 significant strikes per minute with 61% accuracy compared to the challenger’s marks of 4.37 and 50%, respectively.

O’Malley also absorbs almost two fewer strikes per minute with 61% defense, whereas Vera owns a defensive success rate of just 51%.

It’s also worth noting that O’Malley is 6-1-1 in his last eight fights as the favorite while Vera is 3-5 as the underdog in the UFC.

UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera 2 Prop Bets & Betting Trends

When it comes to the UFC 299 main event props, the first thing I noticed is that BetOnline is favoring O’Malley vs. Vera 2 to go the distance at -130 odds.

It’s just strange seeing that considering how the two bantamweight combine for 31 finishes across 51 total fights between them. O’Malley has also only gone the distance once in his last nine fights while eight of Vera’s 14 previous outings featured some sort of finish.

Having said that, BetOnline favors O’Malley to win via points at +100 odds. The 29-year-old champion has gone the distance four times in his career while picking up a win on each occasion.

As for Vera, his most likely victory method is to win via KO/TKO (+400) — just like he did when he last clashed with O’Malley. Although Vera has eight KO/TKO victories to his name, he has only knocked out two of his last five opponents.

If there is a finish, O’Malley is most likely to knock out Vera in Round 1 (+800). Of O’Malley’s 12 career knockouts, seven of them occurred in the opening frame.

If Vera is victorious via finish, it’s most likely to be a first-round knockout, too, albeit at +1400 odds.

UFC 299: O’Malley vs Vera 2 Prediction & Best Bet

Vera got the first win, but it’s time for O’Malley to get some revenge. As mentioned before, O’Malley lost by a fluke when these bantamweights first met and he’s only become better since then. Vera doesn’t have the best striking defense in the world and the fact that he’s the No. 5 fighter in the division leads me to believe that he might not be ready for this bout.

With that in mind, I’m taking O’Malley to win via KO/TKO. The champion has something to prove this weekend and he’ll try to make an example of Vera, who I think is being overhyped at the moment.

However, if you aren’t confident in either fighter, go with a neutral bet by saying that the fight won’t go the distance. With how dangerous both fighters’ striking is, I don’t see this bout lasting the full five rounds.