UFC Odds: Lipski-Aldrich prediction, pick, how to watch
The first women’s bout on the UFC Fight Night Prelims will come between two contenders in the Flyweight (125 lb) Division. Brazil’s Ariane Lipski will take on JJ Aldrich from Denver, Colorado. Both women will look to challenge for a divisional ranking.
Ariane Lipski is 14-8 in her MMA career and is 3-5 in the UFC. She’s had a rocky career and hasn’t been able to put together consistent performances. Her last win came against Mandy Bohm where she grappled her way to a unanimous decision, but was stifled by Priscila Cachoeira in the first round of her last fight. She’ll be fighting back down at flyweight for this one hoping to get a win against a streaking opponent. Lipski stands 5’6″ with a 67-inch reach.
JJ Aldrich is 11-5 in her career and has gone 7-4 in the UFC. She’s found her footing within the division and was able to string along three consecutive wins over Cortney Casey, Vanessa Demopolous, and Gillian Robertson. In her last fight, she fought future title challenger Erin Blanchfield and got submitted, but she’s shown she can hang with some of the division’s best. Aldrich stands 5’5″ with a 67.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Odds: Ariane Lipski-JJ Aldrich Odds
Ariane Lipski: +285
JJ Aldrich: -375
Over (2.5) rounds: -230
Under (2.5) rounds: +176
How to Watch Ariane Lipski vs. JJ Aldrich
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET/ 12:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Ariane Lipski Will Win
Ariane Lipski was once dubbed the “Queen of Violence” for her dominant championship reign at KSW, but she hasn’t looked all that of her old self in the UFC. She’s shown flashes of exciting striking and can quickly put opponents down if she manages to string together combinations. She has a very fundamental ground game and can control opponents from top position. She threatens off her back with arm bars and likes to work leg kicks in the striking.
Lipski will have to improve her output from recent performances to have a chance in this one. She came out sluggish against Cachoeira and it cost her, so she can’t afford to come out slow against Aldrich and risk getting hurt early. Lipski will need to keep her hands up and avoid suffering a brutal knockout once again. As the heavy underdog, fans will hope she can turn back the clock with her striking and turn in a vintage performance.
Why JJ Aldrich Will Win
JJ Aldrich was having a nice run of luck for three fights until she was derailed by superstar Erin Blanchfield. It that fight, Aldrich was caught in a guillotine after getting banged up on the feet for her fourth UFC loss. Her wins have come by way of her aggressive, in-your-face style. Aldrich rushes to the center of the octagon and works to control the pace. She fights behind her jab and snaps combinations in a hurry with her fast hands. Aldrich is also very good at slipping her head and throwing punches on the counter.
Aldrich will have success in this fight if she is able to rush Lipski and physically impose her. Lipski doesn’t do well under pressure when she’s being crowded, so look for Aldrich to push the pace and land her stiff jab up the middle. She’ll need to watch out for Lipski’s kicks up the middle, but if she’s able to catch one and take her down, Aldrich should have an advantage in the wrestling. Aldrich is a negative striker and eats more shots than she lands, so she’ll need to keep her guard up when she’s advancing.
Final Ariane Lipski-JJ Aldrich Prediction & Pick
If JJ Aldrich is able to sit back in her striking rhythm, she’ll most likely win this fight behind her jab and counter punching. If Lipski wants to win, she’ll need to set the tempo and mix things up with her jiu-jitsu. She’s very volatile in how she’ll perform, so it’s a smart bet to go with the favorite in Aldrich here. I expect her to fight to a decision as Lipski puts up a good fight.
Final Ariane Lipski-JJ Aldrich Prediction & Pick: JJ Aldrich (-375); by Decision (-110)
