Noche UFC Odds: Tracy Cortez-Jasmine Jasudavicius prediction, pick, how to watch
We're back with another prediction and pick for Noche UFC as the MMA world continues their celebration of Mexican Independence Day. This next bout takes place in the Women's Flyweight (125 lb) Division between two fighters on the edge of the rankings. No. 14 ranked Tracy Cortez will rep Mexico against Canada's No. 15 ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Tracy Cortez (10-1) comes into this fight with a perfect 4-0 record within the UFC. She's notched wins over Vanessa Melo, Stephanie Egger, Justine Kish, and most recently Mellisa Gatto. Since, she had to pull out of her latest bout against Amanda Ribas due to personal issues, but she's back and ready as ever to put on a show for her Mexican supporters. Cortez stands 5'5″ with a 65.5-inch reach.
Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2) has gone 3-1 in the UFC since earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. Her lone loss came to a surging Natalia Silva, but she's since been able to win back-to-back fights against Gabriella Fernandes and Miranda Maverick in her latest bout. She'll hope to leapfrog Cortez in the rankings with a win here. Jasudavicius stands 5'7″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Noche UFC Odds: Tracy Cortez-Jasmine Jasudavicius Odds
Tracy Cortez: -120
Jasmine Jasudavicius: -104
Over 2.5 rounds: -450
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
How to Watch Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Tracy Cortez Will Win
Tracy Cortez looked very impressive in her last win against Melissa Gatto. It was a close matchup on paper, but Cortez was able to dictate the striking pace with her boxing and controlled Gatto with her pressure wrestling. It led to a unanimous decision victory as Cortez was able to stay perfect in the octagon, but it's worth noting that she may have not been 100% for that fight. Cortez recently opened up about her last fight cancellation and cited personal hurdles and mental health issues she's been dealing with. The hope is that Cortez worked out her issues and is once again in a healthy place emotionally ahead of this fight.
Cortez will win this fight if she's able to land the bigger actions throughout the fight. Neither fighter has a ton of finishing ability, so Cortez will benefit from looking like the more active striker in this one. She should look to stay on the outside while popping her jab and disrupting Jasudavicius' movement with her leg kicks. Cortez is a very skilled grappler, so the first exchange will be a great telling sign as to which fighter will control the wrestling exchanges. Look for Cortez to attack her submissions if she finds an opening.
Why Jasmine JasudaviciusWill Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius has looked very consistent throughout her UFC fights and it's apparent that she can stick to a game plan when there's a clear path to victory. They path won't be as clear here due to the fact she matches up very closely with Cortez in most areas. Jasudavicius may look a step slower than Cortez in the striking, but she's got a great chin and can easily find her way inside and into the clinch. She'll also have a slight height and reach advantage over Cortez, so look for Jasudavicius to exploit her size and get Cortez on her back foot in this one.
To win this fight, Jasudavicius should look to crowd Cortez and pressure her from the opening bell. Her opponent hasn't seen the octagon in over a year, so Jasudavicius would benefit greatly from immediately bringing the fight to Cortez and shocking her out the gate. In the wrestling, Jasudavicius could see some success as the bigger fighter if she's able to find top position – look for her to work a takedown relentlessly as she tries to steal a round of ground control.
Final Tracy Cortez-Jasmine JasudaviciusPrediction & Pick
This fight is going to be very close on the scorecards as indicated by the near-even betting odds. Neither woman has a great ability to finish the fight and both has respectable chins, so expect this fight to see all three rounds and the judges' scorecards. It'll be interesting to see how Cortez looks after over a year away from her last UFC fight, so don't be surprised if Jasudavicius looks dominant early in this one.
However, this is a huge moment for Cortez and it's clear that she took her time coming back into fighting form. She's obviously in a much better place mentally and she'll be amped up to get this win in front of the Mexican crowd. For the prediction, we'll go with Tracy Cortez to get this win by the slightest of margins as she dominates late with her wrestling and active striking.
Final Tracy Cortez-Jasmine Jasudavicius Prediction & Pick: Tracy Cortez (-120)
