UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Silva Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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12 July 2023

UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Silva Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC Vegas 77 is just a few days away, bringing more can’t-miss MMA action to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday. There’s something for everyone on the intriguing card, including the main event between former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm and battle-tested veteran Mayra Bueno Silva.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of effect this fight has on the bantamweight division. After all, Holm is currently the division’s No. 3-ranked fighter while Silva occupies the No. 10 spot. In other words, a victory for either woman likely means an opportunity at gold in the near future.

Betting News has put together a Holm vs. Silva preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Vegas 77 main event.

Holm vs Silva— Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm — Mayra Bueno Silva

Record: 15-6 — 10-2-1
Height: 5’8” — 5’6”
Reach: 69” — 66”
Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
Age: 41 — 31
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 8 — 1

UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Silva Odds (as of Tuesday, July 11 at 11:21 p.m.)

Moneyline

Holly Holm -173
Mayra Bueno Silva +148

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-185)
Under 4.5 Rounds (+155)

Holm vs Silva Fighter History

Judging by the above odds, MMA fans can expect an evenly-matched UFC Vegas 77 main event. Having said that, BetOnline does favor Holm at -173 odds to win, which carries an implied win probability of 63.4%.

Holm’s career has been interesting, to say the least. The Albuquerque, New Mexico native burst onto the MMA scene in a big way, racking up 10 straight victories to begin her career. The 10th was her biggest as she knocked out Ronda Rousey to win the bantamweight championship at UFC 193.

Unfortunately, that was as good as things got. Holm lost her title just one fight later, submitting to Miesha Tate, which kickstarted a 2-5 run that saw her fail to capture both bantamweight and featherweight championships.

However, Holm has since won two of her last three fights, most recently defeating Yana Santos by unanimous decision just over three months ago.

A victory at UFC Vegas 77 would mark the biggest win of Silva’s career, though. The 31-year-old veteran has been impressive in the UFC, going 6-2-1 over nine fights since debuting in 2018.

Silva’s also in the middle of her best run in the company, winning three consecutive fights since returning to the bantamweight division. After beating Wu Yanan by points at UFC Vegas 51, Silva went on to submit both Stephanie Egger and Lina Lansberg in the next two fights.

Although Holm has the size advantage, Silva is 10 years younger than her opponent. The underdog also lands more significant strikes per minute (4.20 vs. 3.17) with better accuracy (54% vs. 40%). That’s not even to mention how Silva’s 50% takedown accuracy and 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes could give Holm some issues, too.

UFC Vegas 77 Betting Trends and Markets for Holm vs Silva

Even though there isn’t anything wrong with a moneyline bet for this fight, there are better options out there. Fortunately, BetOnline has several markets worth monitoring when it comes to the UFC Vegas 77 main event.

For instance, the sportsbook favors that this fight will go the distance at -165 odds. Interestingly enough, eight of Holm’s last 10 fights have gone the distance (including the most recent four) while three of Silva’s previous five have reached the limit.

A longer bout likely suits Holm, who has an average fight time of 17:29, whereas Silva sits at 8:50.

Keeping that in mind, Holm is also favored to win this weekend by points at +120 odds. She’s 7-4 all-time when her fights go the distance, winning three of the last four that have done so.

As for Silva, her most likely method of victory is to win by submission (+275). That isn’t too surprising considering that seven of her 10 career wins have come via submission. Nevertheless, Holm has only been submitted once.

Holm vs Silva UFC Vegas 77 Fight Prediction

Even though her best years might be behind her, I’m taking Holm to win in Las Vegas. Silva relies on her finishing ability to win, but that won’t be easy this weekend with Holm having only been finished twice in 21 previous fights. The former champion’s excellent cardio will pay off her as she outlasts Silva to take home the victory.

With that being said, it makes the most sense to side with Holm wining by points (+120) as the best main event bet. Again, this fight is shaping up to be a long one and Silva hasn’t faced anyone on the favorite’s level just yet. Holm will use her size advantage to remain on her feet, eventually earning enough points from the judges to win.