College Basketball: Big South Conference

UNC Asheville vs. UCLA Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Bruins Roll in their March Madness Opener?

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14 March 2023

UNC Asheville vs. UCLA Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Bruins Roll in their March Madness Opener?

The No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins were given a favorable location in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as they face the No. 15-seed UNC Asheville Bulldogs in Sacramento. Read on for our UNC Asheville vs. UCLA college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

UNC Asheville (27-7, 16-2) won its fourth Big South Conference tournament title since 2011 and its first since 2016. The Bulldogs are trying to become the second Big South team ever to win an NCAA Tournament game, as all other schools are a combined 1-26 in the Round of 64.

UCLA (29-5, 18-2) was a 3-pointer at the buzzer away from beating Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game and doubling down as regular-season champions. The Bruins are making their 50th NCAA Tournament appearance (fourth-most all-time) and are led by Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez (17.3 points per game).

Here is our best UNC Asheville vs. UCLA college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UNC Asheville vs. UCLA odds

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UCLA gets a huge advantage playing in Sacramento, but a UNC Asheville team that ranks as the 12th-oldest in the country in terms of D-I experience should be unfazed.

Bulldogs center Drew Pember (21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds per game) is a matchup nightmare, as he leads Division I in free throws and free throws attempted. UCLA’s interior defense with which to handle the Big South Player of the Year is compromised with UCLA forward Adem Bona’s shoulder injury (his status for this game is unknown).

Even without Bona, the Bruins held Arizona to 61 points and 40.6% shooting inside the arc. However, Pember has also made 37.3% of his 3-point attempts, and his 56 made 3-pointers are tied for the fifth-most of any player his height in the country. His ability to stretch the floor and beat slower defenders off the dribble is a big reason the Bulldogs rank sixth nationally beyond the arc (made 38.8% of 3-point attempts). They should cause some problems for a UCLA defense that is also without its best perimeter defender in forward Jaylen Clark (out for the season with a torn Achilles).

In addition to Pember’s versatility, UNC Asheville’s connected defense is why we like it to stay close. The Bulldogs rank in the top 60 in free throw rate allowed and are disciplined early in the shot clock, as they rank 301st in average defensive possession length. In addition, they routinely force teams into isolation basketball late in possessions, as they allowed the 48th-lowest assist rate per field goals made.

UNC Asheville was not an underdog much this year but covered the spread in eight of the 11 games in that role, and we are backing it to do so again.

UNC Asheville vs. UCLA best odds

DraftKings (-115)

DraftKings and BetMGM offer the best number for UNC Asheville backers at +18.5, though it comes with slightly extra juice (-115 compared to the standard -110 odds). UNC Asheville is 8-3 against the spread as underdogs this season, while UCLA is 19-10-1 ATS as a favorite and 8-5 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since 2015.

UNC Asheville vs. UCLA odds analysis

UCLA opened as a consensus 18.5-point favorite but has seen its point spread odds more commonly lowered to +17.5 or +18. Fifty-seven percent of all point-spread wagers have backed the favorites.

The consensus opening O/U was 134.5, and the line has not yet budged at any sportsbook other than BetRivers, who moved to 135. The lack of line movement likely has much to do with the solid two-way betting action thus far, as 59% of the wagers have sided with the Over.