Updated NBA Finals odds: Picks, bets for 2024 NBA Champions
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The NBA is about to cross the halfway point of the 2023-24 season, and NBA Finals betting odds are beginning to take shape.
While the Boston Celtics entered the year at the top of the betting odds and are still the odds-on favorites today, there’s been lots of movement amongst the other top contenders.
Here are the latest NBA Finals betting odds entering the second half of the regular season:
Updated 2024 NBA Finals betting odds: Celtics, Nuggets lock down the top spots
2024 NBA Finals best bet: Denver Nuggets (+420 or better)
The Nuggets were a strong team in the 2022-23 regular season but hit a new gear when the postseason started. Despite this year’s squad flying under the radar, they’re only a couple of games out of first place in the Western Conference and are playing some of their best basketball of the year.
Denver has one of the most efficient and effective starting fives in the league. Although their bench is a concern (26th in bench net rating), they’re great in clutch situations and have the best player in the league, Nikola Jokic.
To win the Finals, a team first needs to get there, and the Nuggets match up well with the other top contenders in the West.
They can exploit the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder, who have a lack of size, and are so good in the half-court that the Minnesota Timberwolves’ defense likely won’t play as much of a factor as it does against other opponents.
While the Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will also be popular options, the Celtics’ late-game decision-making and reliance on the 3-point shot make them a liability, and the Bucks’ poor defense could come back to bite them.
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2024 NBA Finals pick: Philadelphia 76ers to win NBA Finals (+1200 or better)
Against all odds, the 76ers got better after losing an All-NBA caliber point guard in James Harden. They’re third in net rating, do a tremendous job on both offense and defense, allow the lowest 3-point percentage in the league and make more free throws than any team -- giving them a variety of avenues to exploit depending on the opponent.
Philly can slow the game down in the half-court or run with Tyrese Maxey in transition. They go deep off the bench and have already beaten the Nuggets, Celtics, Thunder and Timberwolves.
At the center of the Sixers’ dominance is Joel Embiid, who’s playing at a level that hasn’t been seen even during Jokic or Giannis Anetekounmpo’s best years. The reigning MVP is averaging 35.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.9 blocks while also putting himself on pace to post the highest PER in a single season.
Embiid has a history of disappointing in the playoffs but has also been injured during nearly every postseason appearance. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a force.
2023-24 NBA Finals long shot: Dallas Mavericks to win NBA Finals (+3200 or better)
A long-shot Finals candidate needs to have a certain quality or characteristic that none of the top teams can stop. For Dallas, that quality is relentless individual scoring by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Dallas’ backcourt averages 59.4 points, 14.5 assists and 13.1 rebounds per game, and both members shoot at least 48% from the field and 38% from three.
The primary concern with the Mavs is their defense, but they’re a top-half unit with Dereck Lively II on the court and still have time to improve their roster ahead of the trade deadline. They made a run to the Western Conference Finals a couple of years ago and just need one of Luka or Kyrie to get hot to carry them through an entire series.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, and appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant's work here or by checking out his YouTube channel "The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”
