USA vs. Lithuania Predictions, Picks & Odds: FIBA World Cup

Will USA basketball remain undefeated in the FIBA World Cup, or will Lithuania shock the Americans once again on the international stage? We're offering up our best USA vs. Lithuania predictions based on the best FIBA World Cup odds.

We saw absolute chaos at the start of the second phase of the FIBA World Cup, but none of that chaos took place in Group J, which features the USA, Lithuania, Montenegro, and Greece.

The USA had a little bit of trouble with Montenegro but ultimately ended up winning the game by 12 points, and Lithuania dismantled Greece on their way to a 25-point victory. With both the USA and Lithuania sitting at 4-0 in the tournament, they have both advanced to the quarterfinals.

With a little excitement removed from this matchup, will we see another thriller between Lithuania and the USA in international competition, a country that has caused problems for the Americans in the past?

Here is our best USA vs. Lithuania prediction for Sunday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pickconfidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Lithuania predictions: FIBAWorld Cup

Lithuania +17.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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In a game where both teams have already advanced to the quarterfinals and essentially have nothing to play for, it's going to be very hard to convince me to lay the 17.5 points with the USA. The winner of this game between the USA and Lithuania will win the group and play against whoever finishes second in Group I. However, it's not like they're trying to avoid anyone in a group that features Serbia, Italy, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. If Nikola Jokic were playing for Serbia, that would be a different story.

Another issue is that even if the USA or Lithuania has a preferred matchup in the quarterfinals from Group I, they have no idea if it will take a win or a loss to face them because Group I has a four-way tie heading into Sunday. The Dominican Republic and Serbia will be playing at the same time as the USA and Lithuania.

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So why am I taking Lithuania and the points? While both teams technically have nothing to play for, beating the USA in an international competition is something every country can hang their hat on and desperately want to do. Lithuania has been tough on the USA in the past as well. Does Sarunas Jasikevicius ring a bell with anyone? I remember those 2004 Olympics when they defeated the USA in group play.

The USA might just see this as another game, but I'm sure that won't be the case for Lithuania, who had a much easier time against Montenegro than the USA did. Lithuania will be able to score with the USA and has the interior size with Jonas Valanciunas to compete. With Rokas Jokubaitis running pick and rolls with Valanciunas and the former Michigan product Ignas Brazdeikis on the wing, I just think 17.5 points is way too many points for the USA to be laying in this matchup, considering the circumstances.

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USA vs. Lithuania best odds

The best price for Lithuania can be found at bet365, which is not only offering the lowest juice on their side of the spread but also the best number at +17.5. Caesars has taken a much different stance on this game by offering Lithuania at +16 with an additional five cents of juice for 1.5 fewer points on the spread. If Caesars is pricing Lithuania at +16 (-115), that means they believe that Lithuania should be -127 for +17.5, yet it's available at bet365 at -110.

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USA vs. Lithuania odds analysis

We have no consensus on the opening odds for the matchup between the USA and Lithuania, as you can find the USA trading anywhere from -16 to -17.5.

While we're seeing a variety of different numbers for the spread, our best sports betting apps are in agreement on what the total should be trading at, as they have all settled on 177.5.

USA vs. Lithuania game info

• When: Sunday, Sep. 3, 8:40 a.m. ET.
• Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila, Philippines
• How to watch: ESPN

USA-Lithuania pick made 09/01/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

NBA betting odds pages

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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