Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction: College football odds, picks

Ohio University’s offense could be special in 2023. 

Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury late last season, but he’s fully healthy and confirmed to start for Saturday’s season opener at San Diego State.

The little brother of Ohio legend Nathan Rourke, Kurtis could end his career as the more productive Rourke brother.

He ranked second in college football in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades last year (behind Drake Maye), finishing with 3,200 yards, 25 touchdowns and only four picks in 11 games. 

Rourke’s efforts earned him the MAC Player of the Year award — much deserved if you ask me. 

Everything came together for the Bobcats around Rourke last season.

Tim Albin won MAC Coach of the Year honors, and the Bobcats won 10 games.

If Rourke hadn’t hurt his knee, Ohio likely would’ve beaten Toledo in the MAC title game. 

This season, nine starters return to the offensive side of the ball, including Rourke, MAC Freshman of the Year RB Sieh Bangura (1,304 yards from scrimmage, 15 TDs), and first-team All-MAC WR Sam Wiglusz (73 receptions, 877 yards, 11 touchdowns). 

Behind Wiglusz, this is arguably the best receiving room in the conference.

Ohio lost only one receiver in the offseason, bringing back Miles Cross (560 yards, 47 receptions, three TDs) and TE Tyler Foster to pair alongside their top option. 

The offensive line struggled through injuries last season, so it could take a step forward.

The unit lost three guys with a combined 37 career FBS starts, but essentially it needs only to replace RG Hagan Meservy. 

Several veteran upperclassmen are ready to step into big roles upfront. Expect the line to improve because of experience. 

These Bobs will score, and I expect them to catch San Diego State off balance in Week 1 as 2.5-point underdogs. 

The Aztecs lost five starters on defense, including their top three tacklers and top four tackles-for-loss leaders. They lost six key pieces in the first two levels — three on the line and three from the linebacking unit — and may struggle to generate their usual pressure. 

Kurt Mattix is an elite defensive coordinator who should whip this unit into shape.

But that may take time, and I doubt the Aztecs put on their best defensive show on Day 1 against an electric Ohio attack. 

There are concerns about Ohio’s defense, but it will have only one job here: Contain Jalen Mayden. 

The safety-turned-quarterback is boom-or-bust.

Mayden is an athletic dual-action quarterback who can create explosive plays by himself, but he also had five big-time throws to 12 turnover-worthy plays — two of PFF’s passing metrics — last year.

If Mayden can’t create independently, it’s hard to see where points will come from. 

Betting on College Football?

The Aztecs were brutal on the offensive line last season (126th in line yards, 129th in stuff rate, 92nd in sack rate allowed), and while it projects to be better, the line will be far from elite. 

There are quality skill-position players out wide and in the backfield, but we can’t trust Mayden to consistently get the ball to his best guys. 

Plus, SDSU is working with a new offensive coordinator, Ryan Lindley.

The former Aztecs quarterback — and all-time program leader in passing yards — was a quarterbacks coach there last season. Still, I don’t expect this offense to click perfectly in the non-con, especially as Lindley tries to introduce a more pass-happy attack (the Aztecs should pass more). 

I expect Rourke and the potent Ohio offense to drop 30 on SDSU’s inexperienced defense, and I’m betting Mayden and the Aztecs fail to keep pace.

Take the Bobcats on the moneyline (+115) for the outright upset.