USF vs. Syracuse odds, prediction, pick: Best bet for Boca Raton Bowl

Two six-win teams in USF and Syracuse will battle in the Boca Raton Bowl on Thursday night, and I’m unsure if the Orange have the juice to compete. 

Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and starting quarterback Garrett Shrader had surgery and is unavailable for the game.

Even worse, the backup quarterback, Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is also unavailable, leaving redshirt freshman Braden Davis as the starter. 

Aside from those two, two starting ‘Cuse defensemen hit the portal: edge Leon Lowery Jr. (523 snaps) and defensive lineman Terry Lockett (480 snaps). 

That said, while the Bulls lost almost nobody to the portal, two offensive linemen are likely still hurt after missing the past few games (left guard Andrew Kilfoyl and right guard Zane Herring). 

Between the opt-out and injury news, I think we’re in for an ugly bowl game. 

So, I’m betting on a low-scoring rock fight. 

(8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

South Florida’s secondary is horrendous. 

The Bulls rank 105th in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grades.

They’re 106th in EPA per Pass allowed and dead last in Pass Explosiveness allowed – only UNLV has allowed more 20-or-more-yard passing plays than South Florida’s 58. 

The Bulls continually get cooked in the back end, just like last year. There are constantly missed assignments and coverage mishaps. 

If Shrader were playing, Syracuse would take advantage of that. The Orange could generate chunk aerial plays even if the backup was in. 

But I doubt a third-string passer with 57 collegiate snaps can exploit the Bulls’ weaknesses. The Orange might run some wildcat with tight end Dan Villari. 

Syracuse already runs the ball plenty, ranking 13th in rushing plays per game (39) and 10th in rush rate (60.9%). I imagine the Orange lean into that even more to protect Davis.

So, the Orange will rush directly into the Bulls’ relative defensive strength, the front seven.

South Florida’s best defensive players lie at defensive end and linebacker, with Jhalyn Shuler (85 total tackles, seven tackles for loss) quarterbacking a unit that ranks in the top 50 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed. 

The Bulls only allowed 4.4 yards per carry this year. Elite rush offenses can exploit the lack of true talent, but Syracuse isn’t that. 

South Florida is also a rush-heavy team on the other side of the rock, ranking top-10 in rush plays per game (41) and rush rate (54.2%).

Byrum Brown is a solid dual-threat quarterback, racking up over 700 rushing yards with 11 scores this season. 

But the Bulls likely don’t find much success on the ground against an elite Syracuse rush defense. 

The Orange rank 12th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, primarily because they don’t allow explosive rushing plays, allowing only 48 10-or-more-yard rushes (26th nationally) and only eight 20-or-more-yard rushes (18th nationally) all season. 

Marlowe Wax has been excellent as the lead linebacker, racking up 60 tackles and forcing two fumbles. His 78.1 PFF run defense grade ranks in the top 25 among Power Five linebackers.

Plus, the Bulls won’t have two starting offensive linemen! Brown and Co. won’t have those usual holes up the middle.

Altogether, I expect an inefficient, rush-heavy, clock-draining game script, the perfect formula for an Under.

Let’s bet on an ugly one in Boca on Thursday night.  

Under 56.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook | Play to 55.5 (-110)