South Florida vs. Syracuse Prediction, Pick & Odds: Boca Raton Bowl

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19 December 2023

South Florida vs. Syracuse Prediction, Pick & Odds: Boca Raton Bowl

The South Florida Bulls and Syracuse Orange meet in Thursday's Boca Raton Bowl to cap off middling campaigns for each side, and we have you covered with our South Florida vs. Syracuse prediction for the Boca Raton Bowl based on the best college football odds.

South Florida (6-6) and Syracuse (6-6) face off Thursday for the first time in seven years, as these mid-tier programs take center stage in the Boca Raton Bowl - the lone college football bowl game of the day.

Syracuse battled issues under center late in the year and even fired its head coach before the end of the regular season, but the Orange rallied to win two of their final three games to reach back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade.

Similarly, South Florida shook off a midseason swoon to win two of its last three games and secure its first bowl berth since 2018 in head coach Alex Golesh's first year at the helm.

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best South Florida vs. Syracuse prediction and our college football picks for Thursday's Boca Raton Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

South Florida vs. Syracuse prediction: Boca Raton Bowl

The future appears bright for Syracuse after securing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord, a former five-star recruit, in the transfer portal. That won't help this team's woeful situation under center in the Boca Raton Bowl, though.

Starter Garrett Shrader, who battled through a shoulder injury late in the year, finally underwent surgery and won't be available for the bowl game. The team released a depth chart Monday listing redshirt freshman Braden Davis - who has attempted one career pass for -6 yards - as the starter, though we could also see wildcat tight end Dan Villari take snaps in this one.

Either way, don't expect much from this Orange attack, which will also be without offensive coordinator Jason Beck on Thursday. Running backs coach Mike Lynch will call the plays on offense, which hints at the type of game plan we can expect in this one.

That spells a huge missed opportunity against a South Florida defense that ranks dead last in passing yards allowed (301.2 YPG) and struggled to limit explosive plays all season. Those issues led USF to rank 120th in scoring defense (34.9), which is inflating this betting total despite Syracuse's QB woes.

On the other side, dual-threat QB Byrum Brown ranks seventh in the nation in total offense (318.6 YPG) and finished the regular season with 23 passing touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Don't be fooled, though, as the Bulls' star posted more turnover-worthy plays (23) than big-time throws (19), per PFF, and ranked 30th in passing grade (66.7) among 35 passers with at least 400 dropbacks.

Syracuse's defense forced nine turnovers over its final four games, and its 3-3-5 scheme - popularized by current defensive coordinator Rocky Long - should frustrate Brown all night long in a game that could fall well short of Thursday's total.

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South Florida vs. Syracuse best odds

Thursday's total is dealing at 56.5 across almost all of our best sports betting apps. The lone exception is DraftKings, which is hanging an outlier total of 57 with -110 odds both ways - making it the obvious choice for anyone looking to bet the Under for this year's Boca Raton Bowl.

That's a clear example of why it pays to shop around when looking for the best price. It's also worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the most out of your wager.

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South Florida vs. Syracuse odds

Syracuse opened as high as a 5.5-point favorite at some shops before settling closer to -3.5 across most of our best sports betting sites. That number dipped even further after Monday's news that Shrader (shoulder) wouldn't suit up for the Orange.

Meanwhile, the betting total opened at 58.5 but now sits at 56.5 at most of our best sportsbooks. We'd play the Under at that number, though we'd prefer to squeeze that extra value from the total of 57 via DraftKings.