Using History as a Guide for Handicapping the 2022 Arkansas Derby

The Arkansas Derby will take place five weeks before the Kentucky Derby. The change will not affect the quality of the horses that will compete in the race. American Pharoah, Creator, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Victory Gallop have won the Arkansas derby in recent years.

Eight of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners were racing first, second or third after the opening half mile. Only two of last fifteen winners settled more than 3 ½ lengths off the pace after that.

Favorites have a good record of success in recent editions of the Arkansas Derby. Five of last six winners started as the top betting choice.

Double-digit longshots succeed more often than mid-range longshot. Since 2010, five double-digit long shots have visited the winner's circle: Super Stock (12.20-1), Creator (11.60-2), Danza (41.30-3), Archarcharch (25. 20-20), and Line of David (17. 30-30). Only one non-favored runner has won at single- digit odds.

Out-of-state shippers often prevail in the Arkansas Derby. Since 2010, Creator, Archarcharch and Super Stock are the only Oaklawn-based runners to reach the winner's circle.

Arkansas Derby winners often use the Rebel Stakes as their final prep race before the Arkansas Derby. Six of the last eight Arkansas Derbies have exited the race.

11 of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners were sired by stallions who won at least one Grade 1 race running one mile or farther. Elite class and two-turn stamina are essential traits for winning the Arkansas derby.

Entries for the Arkansas Derby were drawn on Sunday. Un Ojo and Cyberknife are two horses with historical credentials. Cyberknife is a son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.  Un Ojoe is based away from Oaklawn Park. He won the Rebel Stakes last month. His only previous graded stakes attempt was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stake at Fair Grounds.