Using History to Handicap the 2021 Arkansas Derby

The Road to the Kentucky Derby winds down on Saturday with the running of the $1 million, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The historic race boasts an impressive roster of winners, including champions and classic winners American Pharoah, Creator, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Victory Gallop, and more.

Nine of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners were racing first, second, or third after the opening half mile. Only two of last fifteen winners settled more than 3 ½ lengths off the pace after that.

Favorites have crossed the wire first in 12 of the last 18 editions of Arkansas Derby.

Double-digit longshots succeed more often than mid-range longshot bets. Creator (11.60-1 in 2016), Danza (41.30-30 in 2014), Archarcharch (25.20-20 in 2011), and Line of David (17. 30-10 in 2010) are examples of long shots who have won the Arkansas Derby.

Bob Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby three times since 2012. He has also trained Bodemeister, American Pharoah, and Nadal. Bafert's record since then is 10-4-2- 2.

Out-of-state shippers often win the Arkansas Derby. Creator and Archarcharch are the only Oaklawn-based winners since 2010. Five of the last seven horses to cross the wire first in the race exited the Rebel.

11 of the last 15 Arkansas Derby winners were sired by stallions who won at least one Grade 1 race running one mile or farther. Elite class and two-turn stamina are essential traits for winning the Arkansas derby.

Concert Tour is a son of Street Sense, who won the 2007 Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Bob Baffert and based in California. Concert Tour won his last race in the Rebel.

Using History to Handicap the 2021 Arkansas Derby is trained by Bob Baffert. He won the Rebel in his last start.