Spurs vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 March 2024

Spurs vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Victor Wembanyma has made significant strides all over the court, especially when it comes to using his wingspan defensively. Read more as San Antonio's star rookie headlines our Spurs vs. Rockets betting picks.

The NBA has long been a superstar-driven league, and as often as not, singular players make dud matchups intriguing. The San Antonio Spurs facing the Houston Rockets certainly does not do much for entertainment, not with the Spurs cruising toward another top draft pick and the Rockets trending far from the playoffs.

However, any chance to watch Victor Wembanyama is a worthwhile chance to watch basketball, particularly given the dominant streak he has been on in the recent NBA odds.

At some point, it will make sense to fade Wembanyama props, but that point has not yet arrived as we trust his most unique skill in our free NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Rockets on March 5.

Spurs vs Rockets odds

Spurs vs Rockets predictions

Rookies rarely lead the NBA in any statistical category

However, San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama stands alone in blocks per game, averaging 3.4. Walker Kessler trails by 0.7 blocks per game, a rather hefty margin in the category. Even before the French rookie’s recent surge, he was averaging 3.0 blocks.

But in eight games since Feb. 12, Wembanyama has averaged 5.4 blocks per game. Go ahead and even remove the 10-block monstrosity he posted against the Raptors on Feb. 12, and he has averaged 4.7 blocks across seven starts.

It will eventually make sense to fade Wembanyama’s defense. Either he will tire from this workload — 30.4 minutes per game in these eight games, or sportsbooks will over-adjust to this recent play.

However, tonight is not the night to fade Wembanyama’s defense. The Houston Rockets take 32.9 shots per game within five feet of the hoop, the third-most in the NBA.

While Wembanyama’s wingspan can block a shot anywhere on the court, it is most applicable near the hoop. Houston will give him plenty of chances to work there, as the majority of the Rockets’ shots at the rim tend to be low-percentage attempts that Wemby can alter.

My best bet:Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks (-124 at BetRivers)

Spurs vs Rockets same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks

Jalen Green Under 20.5 points / Under 228

Houston center Alperen Sengun should be most bothered by Wembanyama’s defense, partly because of the presumed defensive matchup and partly because Sengun lives at the rim, taking 8.1 attempts within five feet of the hoop per game, the sixth-most in the NBA.

Jalen Green takes the next-most shots at the rim on the Rockets (5.3 per game), and he struggles with them, making only 56.3%. Wembanyama’s mere existence should make Green’s life miserable.

Combining that expectation with Houston’s recent Under trend and some faith in Under 228 makes sense. The Rockets have gone Under their pregame total in their last three games and four of their last five. Seven of Houston’s last 10 games have also gone Under its total.

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Spurs vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Rockets opened as 6.5-point favorites on Monday evening, climbing as high as -8 late in the night before settling at -7.5 this morning. Houston hasn't been a three-bucket favorite since Jan. 24, losing in overtime as a 10-point favorite against Portland. In all of 2024, the Rockets are 0-2 against the spread as three-bucket favorites.

This total opened at 227.5 and quickly jumped to 229 on Monday night, returning and staying at 228.5 on Tuesday. Given Houston’s recent struggles and Wembanyama’s overall impact, an Under should be the only play on the total.