Vincenzi’s BMW Championship betting preview: Rory primed for glory at Olympia Fields
The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2023 season as we head to Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois to play the BMW Championship.
The top-50 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.
This is the second time the BMW Championship will be played at Olympia Fields, with the first being in 2020 when Jon Rahm outdueled Dustin Johnson in an epic playoff.
The tournament will be held on Olympia Fields’ North Course, which is a par 70 measuring 7,366 yards and featuring Bluegrass greens similar to Poa annua.
The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.
Past Winners at the BMW Championship
- 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington Country Club
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
- 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
- 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms
5 Key Stats For Olympia Fields Country Club
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Wilmington Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Approach tells us how close a golfer is getting to the hole on his approach to the green. When players are locked-in on their approach game, they often have far more opportunities to putt for birdie. This should serve as a particularly strong indicator for success at the BMW Championship.
- Scottie Scheffler (+38.7)
- Lucas Glover (+29.1)
- Russell Henley (+25.1)
- Rory McIlroy (+23.5)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is a combination of driving distance and driving accuracy and will be an important factor this week. Olympia Fields’ sizable par 70 includes many long par-4’s. Therefore, driving it long and in the fairway will be the best recipe for success.
- Rory McIlroy (+26.4)
- Scottie Scheffler (+25.4)
- Si Woo Kim (+20.9)
- Patrick Cantlay (+19.9)
- Byeong Hun An (+18.6)
Proximity 175-200
With many of the holes at Olympia Fields being relatively long, most of the approach shots will be coming from the proximity of 175 to 200 yards. It will be important to target good long-iron players.
- Viktor Hovland (22.0)
- Scottie Scheffler (+19.7)
- Eric Cole (+13.2)
- Sepp Straka (+11.9)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+11.7)
Par 4’s 450-500
This course features seven par 4s playing at a difficult distance of 450 to 500 yards. Players’ recent success navigating long par 4s will be one of the most important indicators for success at the BMW Championship.
- Rory McIlroy (+25.1)
- Viktor Hovland (+22.0)
- Scottie Scheffler (+22.0)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+15.3)
- Lucas Glover (+14.7)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Tee-to-green success reports how efficient a player is at getting his ball to the green. It is a combination of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
This statistic is especially important on long golf courses like Olympia Fields this weekend. Put simply, it indicates which golfer is in the best current form.
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.3)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.3)
- Lucas Glover (+1.8)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.7)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.6)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
- Scottie Scheffler (+800)
- Rory McIlroy (+800)
- Lucas Glover (+3300)
- Viktor Hovland (+1600)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Jon Rahm (+1000)
- Si Woo Kim (+5000)
- Rickie Fowler (+3300)
BMW Championship Picks
Rory McIlroy +800 (Bet365):
Last week, an underdog was able to emerge victorious at the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship. With a 50-man field at Olympia Fields this week, I don’t believe that will happen again. While there are always outliers, no-cut small field events tend to cause the best players in the world to rise to the top.
Of the best players in the world, none are playing better at the moment than Rory McIlroy. In his past 24 rounds, the 34-year-old ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. McIlroy has not finished outside of the top-10 in any of his past eight events.
Rory’s majestic ball striking was on full display once again at TPC Southwind last week. He gained 4.4 strokes off the tee and 4.7 strokes on approach on his way to a tie for 3rd place finish. Say what you will about McIlroy’s ability to win majors over the past decade, but his propensity to win FedEx Cup events cannot be denied. The Northern Irishman is currently tied with Dustin Johnson for the most FedEx Cup wins and seems poised to pass him this week.
Olympia Fields is what I call a “big boy” golf course. Last week, iron play and putting was enough to win in Memphis, but this is a completely different golf course. The track is an absolute brute and requires power to contend. In 2020, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson played bully ball on their way to a playoff, with big hitters Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama (who was hitting it much further in 2023) were the only other players under par.
Rory McIlroy is incredibly difficult to beat at this time of year and has the perfect skill set to tame the extremely difficult Olympia Fields at the BMW Championship.
Cameron Young +4000 (FanDuel):
As I mentioned above, Olympia Fields is a long and difficult golf course. I believe distance off the tee will be more of a benefit at this course than any other course on Tour this season. Although he’s been up and down this season, there’s no denying that Cameron Young is among the world’s best with a driver in his hands. In the field, Rory McIlroy is the only player that beats Young in driving distance.
In addition to the major distance advantage Young will have on the field, he also does a lot of his best work in difficult events. He’s been excellent in major championships as well as difficult tracks such as Riviera and Quail Hollow. Last week, Young gained 3.6 strokes off the tee at TPC Southwind, and I believe will have the chance to gain even more this week on a course where he can let the driver loose on just about every hole.
Young is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he’s been knocking at the door in all of the biggest events. The BMW Championship will play like a major championship, which means the 25-year-old should find himself right in the thick of it yet again.
