VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trends Report for Tuesday, January 30
The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two NBA betting trends systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): LA LAKERS ML
These last three NBA betting trends systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-ATL, UTA-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): LAL-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER instead in IND-BOS, PLAY OVER instead in LAL-ATL
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 110-80 SU but 79-109-1 ATS (42%) versus teams playing a 3 Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/30: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 46-37 SU but 32-51 ATS (38.6%) hosting teams playing a 3 Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/30: Fade GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 60-38 SU but 39-58-1 ATS (40.2%) hosting teams playing a 4 Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/30: Fade GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Teams playing on 3 Straight Home game were 55-22 SU and 46-28-3 ATS (62.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
1/30: ATLANTA vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-5.5 vs LAL)
1/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 33-20 SU but 20-32-1 ATS (38.5%) hosting teams playing on a 4 Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/30: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Home teams playing a 4 in 6 Days game were 41-18 SU and 33-25-1 ATS (56.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/30: NEW YORK vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-4 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 27-22 SU and 27-22 ATS (55.1%) hosting teams playing in a 4 in 6 Days game last season.
1/30: NEW YORK vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-4 vs UTA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 27-19 SU but 21-24-1 ATS (46.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/30: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Host teams playing a 4 Straight Home were 28-10 SU and 26-12 ATS (68.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 45-38 SU and 44-38-1 ATS (53.7%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/30: BOSTON vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-7 vs IND)
* Under the total was 85-52 (62%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3 Home in 4 Days game.
1/30: Under the total in BOSTON-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 245)
* Over the total was 72-44 (62.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4 in 6 Days game.
1/30: Over the total in NEW YORK-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 63-46 (57.8%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3 in 4 Days game.
1/30: OVER the total in NEW YORK-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
* Under the total was 43-39 (52.4%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/30: Under the total in INDIANA-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 245)
* Over the total was 23-16 (59%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3 Road in 4 Days game.
1/30: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 25-13 (65.8%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3 in 4 Days game.
1/30: Over the total in NEW YORK-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 41-16 SU and 33-21 ATS in the 3rdStraightHome game scenario over the last three seasons
1/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
* GOLDEN STATE is 22-8 Under the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/30: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235.5)
The following NBA betting trends detail five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 220-227 SU and 192-243-12 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 252-199 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAL-ATL (o/u at 248.5)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 206-204 SU, but 182-215-13 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs PHI)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 76-56 SU and 74-58 ATS (56.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+4 at NYK), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at GSW)
The following NBA betting trends detail nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (142-162 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-180 ATS, 52%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+6.5 at CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 54-47 SU and 58-41-3 ATS (58.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+6.5 at CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 160-202 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-4 vs UTA)
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+4.5), 2. UTAH +4 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+2.8), 2. CHICAGO -6.5 (+1.0), 3. BOSTON -7 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+1.8), 2. UTAH +4 (+0.3), 3. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BOSTON -7 (+0.6) and CHICAGO -6.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-BOS OVER 245 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-ATL UNDER 248.5 (-2.6), 2. TOR-CHI UNDER 227 (-1.1), 3. UTA-NYK UNDER 229 (-0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+3.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -3.5 (+3.5), 2. BOSTON -7 (+1.2), 3. NEW YORK -4 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-NYK OVER 229 (+4.7), 2. PHI-GSW OVER 235.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). IND-BOS UNDER 245 (-3.8) and LAL-ATL UNDER 248.5 (-3.8), 3. TOR-CHI UNDER 227 (-0.6)
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(555) INDIANA at (556) BOSTON
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the IND-BOS series
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
(557) LA LAKERS at (558) ATLANTA
* The last four games of the LAL-ATL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(559) UTAH at (560) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 11-4 ATS hosting Utah since 2008
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(561) TORONTO at (562) CHICAGO
* The last eight games of the TOR-CHI series in Chicago went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(563) PHILADELPHIA at (564) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the PHI-GSW series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
