VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Saturday, January 20
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, MEMPHIS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.’s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML,
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): UTAH ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing the majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, PHILADELPHIA ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-WSH, PHI-CHA, CLE-ATL, OKC-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAS-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MEM-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER INSTEAD): MIL-DET, SAS-WSH
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 80-49 (62%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3 Home in 4 Days game.
1/20: Under the total in NEW YORK-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 63-45 (58.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3 in 4 Days game.
1/20: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 28-14 (66.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
1/20: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 21-11 (65.6%) over the L2 seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
1/20: Over the total in ATLANTA-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* ATLANTA is 18-32 SU and 15-34 ATS in the 3 in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/20: Fade ATLANTA vs. Cleveland
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+2.5 vs CLE)
* ATLANTA was 29-8 Over the total in the 4 in 6 Days game scenario last season
1/20: Over the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)
* SAN ANTONIO was 2-18 SU & 5-15 ATS in the 3 Straight Road game scenario last season
1/20: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Washington
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at WSH)
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 79-49 SU and 77-48-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-55 (55.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 126-101 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 171-118 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIL-DET (o/u at 244.5), PLAY OVER in PHI-CHA (o/u at 229)
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 212-216 SU and 184-234-10 ATS (44%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-2.5 at ATL), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 at MIN)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 188-208 SU and 170-224-2 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+11 vs PHI)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 68-67 SU and 59-71-5 ATS (45.4%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-2.5 at ATL)
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 74-56 SU and 74-56 ATS (56.9%).
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-13.5 at DET)
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 41-11 SU and 33-17-2 ATS (66%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-11 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (138-160 ATS, 46.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-177 ATS, 52.4%) over the L3 seasons.
System Match: CONSIDER FADING SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at WSH)
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +13.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+2.6), 2. MINNESOTA -3 (+1.4), 3. WASHINGTON -2.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+4.7), 2(tie). MILWAUKEE -13.5 (+0.5) and MINNESOTA -3 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-MIN OVER 228.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CHI UNDER 216.5 (-1.8), 2. CLE-ATL UNDER 230 (-1.5), 3. TOR-NYK UNDER 229 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +11 (+1.8), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +3 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -13.5 (+3.0), 2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+2.1), 3. WASHINGTON -2.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CHA OVER 229 (+7.8), 2. SAS-WSH OVER 241 (+2.9), 3. MIL-DET OVER 244.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-ATL UNDER 230 (-5.4), 2. MEM-CHI UNDER 216.5 (-2.4), 3. TOR-NYK UNDER 229 (-0.1)
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(555) CLEVELAND at (556) ATLANTA
* Favorites are on a 6-2 ATS run in CLE-ATL h2h series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(561) MEMPHIS at (562) CHICAGO
* Favorites have won the last eight ATS in the MEM-CHI h2h series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(547) MILWAUKEE at (548) DETROIT
* MILWAUKEE is 8-2 ATS at Detroit since 2019
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS
(559) OKLAHOMA CITY at (560) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the OKC-MIN series at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(551) PHILADELPHIA at (552) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites have won the last five ATS in the PHI-CHA series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(549) SAN ANTONIO at (550) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 12-3-1 in the SAN-WAS series since 2015
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(553) TORONTO at (554) NEW YORK
* The last six games of the TOR-NYK series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(557) UTAH at (558) HOUSTON
* Road teams are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 of the UTA-HOU series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
