VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trends Report
The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, SACRAMENTO, MILWAUKEE, NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, SACRAMENTO ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-PHI, GSW-ATL, SAC-CHI, MIL-DAL, LAL-NYK, CLE-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER instead in GSW-ATL, PLAY OVER instead in MIL-DAL
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 112-80 SU but 81-109-1 ATS (42.6%) versus teams playing a 3 Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/3: Fade CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs SAC)
2/3: Fade DALLAS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+4.5 vs MIL)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 47-37 SU but 33-51 ATS (39.3%) hosting teams playing a 3 Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/3: Fade CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs SAC)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 62-38 SU but 41-58-1 ATS (41.4%) hosting teams playing a 4 Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/3: Fade CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs SAC)
* Teams playing on 3 Straight Home game were 57-22 SU and 48-28-3 ATS (63.2%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game last season.
2/3: ATLANTA vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-2 vs GSW)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 35-20 SU but 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%) hosting teams playing on a 4 Road in 6 Days game over the last three seasons.
2/3: FADE CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs SAC)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 28-19 SU but 22-24-1 ATS (47.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/3: FADE CHICAGO vs. Sacramento
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs SAC)
* Host teams playing a 4 Straight Home were 29-10 SU and 27-12 ATS (69.2%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
2/3: ATLANTA vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-2 vs GSW)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 46-38 SU and 44-39-1 ATS (53%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/3: SAN ANTONIO vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 vs CLE)
* Under the total was 87-53 (62.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3 Home in 4 Days game.
2/3: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229.5)
* Under the total was 43-40 (51.8%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/3: UNDER the total in CLEVELAND-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229.5)
* Over the total was 28-15 (65.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/3: Over the total in ATLANTA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 244.5)
* Over the total was 23-17 (57.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3 Road in 4 Days game.
2/3: Over the total in CHICAGO-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* PHILADELPHIA is 22-11 SU and 21-12 ATS at HOME in the 4 in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
2/3: PHILADELPHIA vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs BKN)
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 127-27 SU but just 60-92-2 ATS (39.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+10.5 at SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup
it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-58 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 132-107 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-123 (58.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-SAS (o/u at 229.5)
These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 43-12 SU and 34-19-2 ATS (64.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-10.5 at SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 162-202 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 34-53 ATS (39.1%) in the next game, including 15-29 ATS (34.1%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAL)
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1.SACRAMENTO +2 (+2.5), 2. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+0.9), 3(tie). SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+0.8) and BROOKLYN +3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+0.8), 2. DALLAS +4.5 (+0.7), 3. SACRAMENTO +2 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -10.5 (+1.9), 2. ATLANTA -2 (+0.7), 3. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-ATL OVER 244.5 (+2.4), 2. SAC-CHI OVER 229.5 (+1.4), 3. CLE-SAS OVER 229.5 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-DAL UNDER 246 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2 (+1.9), 2. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+1.2), 3. DALLAS +4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-DAL OVER 246 (+5.1), 2. CLE-SAS OVER 229.5 (+2.9), 3. LAL-NYK OVER 226 (+2.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BKN-PHI UNDER 233 (-3.4)
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) BROOKLYN at (530) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on a seven-game ATS winning streak vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(539) CLEVELAND at (540) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the CLE-SAN series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(531) GOLDEN STATE at (532) ATLANTA
* Home teams have swept the last six ATS in the GSW-ATL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(537) LA LAKERS at (538) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 versus LA Laker
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(535) MILWAUKEE at (536) DALLAS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIL-DAL series in Dallas
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(533) SACRAMENTO at (534) CHICAGO
* SACRAMENTO has won the last three ATS versus Chicago
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
