Wake Forest vs. Duke odds, line, spread: 2023 college football picks, Week 10 predictions from proven model

Any high hopes are dashed, but an ACC rivalry victory would help stem the disappointment for the Duke Blue Devils and Wake Forest Demon Deacons when they face off on Thursday. Both teams enter the Week 10 matchup on downward trends. The Blue Devils (5-3, 2-2 ACC) have lost three of their past four games, though all three were to ranked teams. The Demon Deacons (4-4, 1-4) have lost four of five. Wake Forest has won four of the past six meetings between the in-state rivals, but Duke won the last one, a 34-31 home victory last November.  

Kickoff at Wallace Wade Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The latest Wake Forest vs. Duke odds from the SportsLine consensus list the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored is 41.5. Before locking in any Duke vs. Wake Forest picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Wake Forest vs. Duke and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Duke vs. Wake Forest: 

• Wake Forest vs. Duke spread: Blue Devils -7
• Wake Forest vs. Duke over/under: 41.5 points
• Wake Forest vs. Duke money line: Demon Deacons +223, Blue Devils -277
• WAKE: Is 4-2 ATS in its past six games as an underdog. 
• DUKE: Is 8-3 ATS at home since the start of last season.
• Wake Forest vs. Duke picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Wake Forest vs. Duke live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Duke can cover

The Blue Devils, who are 8-4 against the spread in ACC games since the start of last season, have one of the ACC's best running games. However, the Demon Deacons have the conference's worst pass defense (256.5 yards per game), so quarterback Riley Leonard could take to the air. Leonard threw for 391 yards and four touchdowns in this matchup last year, and Jalon Calhoun had 11 catches for 174 yards. Leonard has 1,102 passing yards and 352 yards on the ground in 2023.

Calhoun is averaging a team-high 14.5 yards on his 30 receptions, and Jordan Moore leads the team in receptions (33) and yards (440). Duke is 7-0 ATS in its past seven matchups with unranked teams and will really want to win their only home date over a five-game stretch. The Blue Devils' defense allows just 15 points per game, ninth-best in FBS, and ranks 11th in the nation against the pass (171 yards). Wake Forest averages just 3.4 yards per rush (115th). See which team to pick here.

Why Wake Forest can cover

The Demon Deacons lost 41-16 to No. 4 Florida State last weekend, but they rode a strong rushing attack to a 21-17 victory against Pitt the previous week. They had 172 rushing yards, led by Demond Claiborne (96) and Justice Ellison (60). That duo has combined for 918 rushing yards, and Claiborne has five TDs. Wake Forest also has four receivers with more than 245 receiving yards, with Jahmal Banks posting 476 yards and Wesley Grimes averaging 18.7 yards on 16 catches.   

Quarterback Mitch Griffis has thrown for 1,292 yards and nine TDs despite missing one game, returning from injury against a fierce FSU defense last week. The Demon Deacons defense will rely on its big-play ability to rattle Leonard, who has one TD pass and three interceptions over the past three games. Wake Forest has 18 sacks, led by star pass rusher Jasheen Davis (5.5) and linebacker Jacob Roberts (five). Cornerback DaShawn Jones has three interceptions. See which team to pick here.

How to make Wake Forest vs. Duke picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.