Warriors vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 November 2023

Warriors vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

It's must-see TV at Ball Arena when the Denver Nuggets hosts the Golden State Warriors. The teams are a combined 13-3 on the season but our NBA betting picks are siding with the healthier of the two teams. Read on to find out more!

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets lost Jamal Murray to injury over the weekend, and while they’ve won twice without him, things are about to get a lot tougher with the Golden State Warriors coming to town.

Golden State stands at 6-2 on the year and has been getting MVP-level contributions from Stephen Curry over the first few weeks of the year.

Will Curry's high level of play be enough to overcome tonight's NBA odds?

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview give you my best free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Nuggets.

Warriors vs Nuggets odds

Warriors vs Nuggets predictions

The Denver Nuggets are 2-0 without Jamal Murray this season. He played just nine minutes before sustaining his hamstring injury in a 22-point romping of the Bulls, and they took care of business on Monday in an 18-point win over the Pelicans.

Neither of these teams can play defense like the Golden State Warriors, who have allowed just 110.2 points per 100 possessions through eight games to rank 12th in the league. Draymond Green will be absent from this one for Golden State, but Nikola Jokic is now playing through some pain in his wrist.

This is going to prove to be a tough test for Denver. Not only does this team have to make up the offensive output of Murray with a declining Reggie Jackson, but they may have to compensate for Jokic in this one too.

Jokic’s 114 offensive rating in 26 games against Golden State marks his worst against any opponent. The Warriors have managed to hold him to just 17.8 points per game in their meetings, and despite the absence of Green here, Golden State will have Kevon Looney to combat Jokic down low.

The Warriors’ numbers are already good, but ever-improving over the last two weeks as their new additions begin to settle into their new roles. I think the Warriors will have Denver on upset alert here, playing hard-nosed defense against an offense that is going to be a bit hampered.

My best bet: Warriors +4 (-105 at Caesars)

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Warriors vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Warriors ML

Curry 35+ points + assists

Jokic Under 30.5 points

I do believe this is a game that the Warriors will win. Outside of Green, who is away due to personal reasons, this incredibly efficient team is expected to be at full strength and I do think Golden State’s beefed-up backcourt will have a field day against one led by Jackson, who has never been known for his defensive skills.

Stephen Curry should be particularly successful in this matchup. He’s averaged roughly 24 points, six assists, and five rebounds in his meetings with Jackson in his career, and this version of Curry is one of the scariest we’ve seen. The perennial MVP candidate has averaged over 30 points per game this season on a remarkable 53% shooting from the field and 47.5% from three. He’s averaged better than 35 points and assists over the last three games and has eclipsed this number four times in eight games. Given the matchup with Jackson, I think he should be a safe bet to hit it again.

Then, we’ll short Jokic here. I believe this Warriors defense has his number, and without Murray on the floor, it will be quite easy for Golden State to key in on Jokic and make the rest of this team beat it. This number is very inflated given the injury to Murray, and I actually think that absence will work against him here.

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Warriors vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite all the love I gave the Warriors, bettors aren’t really seeing it the same way. They’ve accounted for just 36% of the bets and 26% of the money on the spread, but the splits on the total are a bit more interesting. Despite 86% of the bets coming in on the Over, a lower 78% of the handle is on that wager with more money coming in on the Under this afternoon.

I believe this will be a defensive battle with Denver taking a step back offensively after torching two sorry defenses, and if Jokic isn’t able to go off in the scoring department then all hope may be lost for Over bettors.

I’d give a strong lean towards the Under here, also taking into account the fact that Golden State will be missing the playmaking ability of Green here.

Warriors vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 98 games (-16.40 Units / -15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.