Nuggets vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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04 January 2024

With Golden State thriving ATS as underdogs this season, we're expecting the Dubs to keep up with the defending NBA champs on Thursday night. Read more as Kenny Ducey breaks down his Nuggets vs. Warriors betting picks.

The Denver Nuggets have won seven of their last eight games and have the opportunity on Thursday to inflict pain upon the Golden State Warriors — a team that’s been down on their luck of late. With the NBA odds expecting a close contest, can Golden State pull off the upset?

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and NBA picks for Nuggets vs. Warriors on January, 4.

Nuggets vs Warriors odds

Nuggets vs Warriors predictions

The Golden State Warriors have lost their way defensively lately, ranking 22nd over the past 10 games as they slip into the bottom half of the league in that category. However, there’s reason to believe they can do a good enough job at guarding the Denver Nuggets tonight.

Golden State ranks eighth in defending the 3-pointer according to Cleaning the Glass, and is a respectable 11th at the rim. While Denver doesn’t shoot the ball from deep all that much, it still ranks Top-10 from beyond the arc. The Warriors may be slumping on defense lately, but the good news is that their 3-point defense has at least remained intact over the latest stretch.

This will be an interesting contest between a Warriors team that thrives from 3-point range and a Nuggets team that is complete on the defensive end, but one which has just struggled the slightest bit when defending the perimeter. Golden State is shooting a decent enough 37.1% from downtown over the last 10 games and should be capable of exploiting this matchup.

Keep in mind, too, that while the Warriors have been a nightmare to bet at home this season (7-11 against the spread), that’s been almost entirely in games where they’ve been asked to lay points. They’re 9-4 ATS as underdogs this year, and 2-1 ATS as home underdogs, so this is indeed a much better spot to bet Golden State if you’re going to play the Dubs at home.

My best bet: Warriors +3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Nuggets vs Warriors same-game parlay

Warriors +3.5Brandin Podziemski 10+ points

Trayce Jackson-Davis 10+ points

The Warriors picked up a massive statement win over Orlando last time out, doing an excellent job of suffocating the Magic’s perimeter attack. One man they looked upon for big minutes in doing so was Brandon Podziemski.

The rookie finished with 10 points for a sixth straight game, but more importantly, he played 28 minutes – bringing his average over the last 11 games to 29.5. With the Warriors continuing to push the tempo and create some extra possessions, Podziemski should certainly reap the benefits.

I’ll stick with the Warriors’ youth movement and bet on Trayce Jackson-Davis to leave his mark on this game in the rebounding department. The youngster should be asked to play a ton of minutes as Golden State tries desperately to counter Denver’s size.

Jackson-Davis has scored 10+ points in seven of his last eight games, so I expect the 23-year-old to continue to be rewarded inside tonight.

Nuggets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

As I alluded to above, this is a clash between two very different teams. The Warriors stand just outside the league’s Top 10 in Pace, while the Nuggets enter Thursday down at 29th.

With the Warriors’ inconsistent play on the defensive end, the Over is also now 19-14 in all of their games, and most notably here it’s 2-1 when Golden State has played as the home underdog. Currently, 75% of the bets and 81% of the cash wagered on the total at DraftKings have come in on the Over.