Warriors vs Wizards Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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27 February 2024

Warriors vs Wizards Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With the Wizards big underdogs against the Warriors tonight, our NBA picks think Steph Curry might be switching up his gameplan a bit — find out where your best bet lies for Tuesday's NBA action.

Draymond Green recently came out and said he feels that despite a slow start to the season, the Golden State Warriors are still title contenders (the NBA title odds say otherwise), and that there isn’t “any team out there,” that they can’t beat.

Well, they played the defending champion Denver Nuggets in their last game and got promptly stomped out. Luckily, things get a little easier on Tuesday night as the Dubs visit the magicless Washington Wizards.

The Wiz are going through it right now, entering this game having lost 11 in a row. But Golden State will have to be road Warriors in this one if they want to cover a big 11.5-point spread.

Can Washington overcome the NBA odds? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Wizards.

Warriors vs Wizards odds

Warriors vs Wizards predictions

Yes, the Golden State Warriors have been playing better basketball of late, winning eight of their last 10 games, and the two losses came in arguably in their two toughest matchups, against the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers.

Overall, you can’t deny that the Dubs have been beating up on basically anyone else. Over about the last month, the Warriors are 11-5 straight up, thanks to an offense that is humming again. Golden State ranks third in offensive rating, eighth in effective field goal percentage, and a familiar second in 3-point shooting percentage.

Not surprisingly, Steph Curry has found his groove in that period. Curry is averaging 30 points while shooting 44.8% from 3-point range while adding 5.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game over that 16-game stretch. And Curry should cook tonight against the poor Washington Wizards.

Washington has just nine wins on the season and enters this matchup losers of 11 in a row where not much has gone right. The Wizards rank 29th in offensive rating, 24th in defensive rating, and dead last in net rating during this slide.

So, slowing down Curry and the Warriors will be a tough task tonight. But while Curry is capable of putting up crazy scoring numbers at any given time, the chance of a blowout here scares me away from Curry’s point total.

Instead, I am homing in on Curry’s assists prop. The two-time MVP is averaging 5.1 assists per game this season, but we have seen his production in this area take a jump over the last six weeks or so. Curry is averaging 5.9 assists per game over his last 20 games and has dished out six or more dimes 12 times over that stretch.

The Wizards defense has not been good, but the extra pass has really burned them. In fact, they rank dead last in opponent assists per game. This feels like a game where Curry gets his teammates involved. I’m taking him to go Over 5.5 assists tonight at a solid value.

My best bet: Steph Curry Over 5.5 assists (+114 at DraftKings)

Warriors vs Wizards same-game parlay

Steph Curry Over 5.5 assists

Steph Curry Over 4.5 rebounds

Wizards team total Under 115.5

While Draymond Green certainly loves to make bold statements, there's no doubt he has made the Warriors a better defensive team since returning to the lineup. The Warriors have played 17 games since Green returned from his suspension, and they rank fourth in defensive rating over that span.

As noted, the Wizards offense is sputtering, ranking 29th in offensive rating during this losing streak. Their team total for this one is sitting at 115.5, a number they've played below nine times during the last 11 games. Add Washington Under its team total to this same-game parlay.

That poor shooting means there are also plenty of rebounds up for grabs. And when you factor in the Wizards ranking dead last in the NBA in rebounding rate, there is an opportunity for Warriors rebounding props. And let’s just stick with Curry. He averages 4.2 per game. The Wizards take a lot of threes these days. So there should be some long rebounds. Close this SGP out with Curry to go Over 4.5 rebounds.

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Warriors vs Wizards spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this NBA matchup has already seen a fair bit of action. The Warriors, who are expected to get Chris Paul back for this one, opened as 11-point road favorites and were quickly bet up to 11.5. But since then, the Wizards have seen some action, Andrew Wiggins was ruled out, and the spread has come back down a bit, now sitting at Golden State -10.5.

While the Warriors are clearly a cut above the Wizards at the moment, they have only been a double-digit favorite five times this season and are 1-3-1 ATS. And as bad as things have been for the Wizards lately, they have covered five of their last eight games. All of those ATS wins were as double-digit dogs. I’m staying away from the spread here.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 241 and has been bet up to 243.5 as of early Tuesday afternoon. But I’m going against the early money here.

Yes, the Warriors have been shooting the ball well, but the Wizards are at least a little competent on the defensive end of the floor, and have the 10th-fewest 3-point attempts and makes per game. And I already spoke to why I think the Wizards could have trouble getting buckets here. I’d lean Under this big number.