Way-Too-Early 2024 Group of Five College Football Playoff Contenders
The 2023 college football season ended Monday, with Michigan dominating Washington to win its first national title since 1997. With the end of the season comes the end of the four-team playoff era.
Starting in 2024, 12 teams will make the College Football Playoff. Those 12 teams will include at least one team from the Group of Five, which means it’s time for us to take a way-too-early look at which teams enter 2024 poised for playoff contention.
We’ve selected one team from each conference.
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AAC: Tulane
Memphis and UTSA are also reasonable choices to contend for the AAC title and a playoff berth in 2024, but Tulane landing Troy head coach Jon Sumrall was huge. Sumrall led the Trojans to consecutive Sun Belt titles, and he should help Tulane reload following the departure of head coach Willie Fritz.
The addition of Oregon quarterback Ty Thompson from the portal should give Tulane a weapon at the most important position on the field. The Green Wave look like they’ll be one of the best AAC teams in 2024, even with a few key departures.
If Tulane can split early season games with Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Green Wave might be the favorite for a playoff berth.
CUSA: Liberty
Head coach Jamey Chadwell returns, and Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter withdrew his name from the portal recently. With that dynamic duo returning, it’s hard to bet against Liberty to win Conference USA in 2024.
Another relatively soft schedule – the Flames do have solid non-conference tests against East Carolina and App State – could lead to an undefeated season. As we saw in 2023, an undefeated Liberty makes a strong case to play in marquee postseason events. Strength of schedule will be the question facing Liberty again in 2024, though.
MAC: Toledo
The MAC might be hard-pressed to contend for a playoff berth in 2024, but if any MAC team has a shot, it’s probably Toledo. The Rockets have posted four consecutive winning seasons under head coach Jason Candle, and they’ve never had a losing season under his guide.
With Candle remaining at Toledo and not being poached by a Power Five school, the Rockets should once again be in the mix for a league championship. Toledo plays one Power Five team in 2024, facing Mississippi State. If Toledo wins that game and goes undefeated, it deserves serious playoff consideration. Even a one-loss Toledo could find itself in the mix, should chaos take place across other leagues.
MWC: Boise State
New coach, no problem. Spencer Danielson did a nice job with Boise State as the team’s interim head coach down the stretch of the 2023 season, and the Broncos added USC transfer Malachi Nelson at quarterback. They’ve also added a few notable defensive players via the portal, including defensive end Tavion Woodard from Ball State.
The Broncos have a brutal schedule that features games against Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State. If they can win at least one of those games, the Broncos could find themselves in the College Football Playoff mix as the Mountain West champion.
Boise State has long been one of the best non-Power Five teams in college football. Don’t expect that to change in 2024.
Sun Belt: App State
JMU and Troy fans might be mad about this pick, but there are multiple Sun Belt teams with the potential to be in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth next season.
While JMU has added plenty of quality players in the transfer portal, the Dukes also lost a ton. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana, and he brought 10 impact players with him via the portal. Defending league champion Troy finds itself in a similar position, with Sumrall leaving for Tulane.
While those programs look to reload – and it’s quite possible they do – App State returns head coach Shawn Clark and starting quarterback Joey Aguilar from a team that beat JMU and won its bowl game to finish with nine wins.
The Mountaineers looked strong down the stretch of the season, and they play Clemson and Liberty in the non-conference. Their game with JMU in 2024 will take place at home. If the Mountaineers go 2-1 against Clemson, Liberty, and JMU, they’ll have the potential for a playoff resume.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
