Week 11 College Football Player Props Opening Lines and Best Bets
Jack Plummer, QB, Louisville vs. Virginia - Under 220.5 Passing Yards (FD) (205.5 DK) - Thursday Night
This season has represented a schematic sea change for Louisville HC Jeff Brohm, as he has embraced the run game in a manner we hadn’t seen in his previous UL and Purdue stints. For perspective, in their last two games against Virginia Tech (53rd vs. Run) and Duke (52nd), Plummer attempted just 12 and 16 passes as their punishing ground game suffocated each opponent by a combined score of 57-3. Louisville’s defense has been an absolute wagon this year, ranking 7th in EPA/Play and 13th overall with a 35% success rate. Their ability to pressure opposing QBs has been ferocious, earning the 14th highest PFF pass rush grade in the country while allowing 18 PPG (17th).
Their smothering defense allows HC Brohm to lean on Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo to control the flow of the game behind their run game that ranks 11th nationally according to PFF. Thus, there’s no need for Plummer to air-it-out 35+ times like the HC Brohm offenses of yesteryear. Their run game efficacy aligns perfectly with Virginia’s complete inability to erect a stiff defensive front, as the Cavaliers rank a pitiful 125th in rushing EPA. To compound matters, starting QB Tony Muskett sustained a dreaded high ankle sprain on Saturday, which will likely press freshman QB Anthony “Coheed and " Colandrea into service on the short week. With star WR Jamari Thrash out, and vital contests against @Miami and Kentucky looming, it makes sense for UL to lean on UVA’s inferior line and emerge with a low-stress victory against a compromised Virginia.
Accordingly, i’m taking Jack Plummer’s Under 220.5 passing yards on FanDuel, which you should get now before the gap between Draft Kings’ 205.5 Pass Yards and Fan Duel’s 220.5 Passing Yards closes. You also have the option to hedge with a 15-yard middle play, but act fast before that option evaporates.
Blake Corum, RB, Michigan at Penn State - Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
It’s a well worn trope around the college football circles that Michigan has played an almost comical schedule to this point, with their toughest foe likely being 6-3 Rutgers who they smoked like sensimilla 31-7. While Corum cleared his 67.5 Rushing Yards prop in every one of his first six games, the Wolverines haven’t had to assert themselves in the second half over the last month, defeating their last five opponents by a gaudy combined score of 239-to-37. Over their last three games against Indiana/Michigan State/Purdue, there was no need to salt away each of these lopsided victories with their hammer Corum, with the senior failing to reach 60 yards in each despite racking up six touchdowns in that span. His backfield-mate Donovan Edwards has been relegated to passing down duties only, hitting a high of just 21 rushing yards over their last four contests while posting a minimum of 23 receiving yards over that span.
Michigan will have no such luxuries against their first ranked opponent this week when they travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions. You can safely bet that the shackles will be off this week and we will see a heaping dose of Corum as Michigan battles to control the line of scrimmage. I envision 20+ touches for Corum, at which point he would need to average a very reasonable 3.4 YPC in order to clear this very reasonable mark. I think Michigan did the betting public a favor by putting him on ice as they easily destroyed their recent opponents with an eye towards keeping Corum fresh for their season-defining stretch run against their hated rivals PSU and OSU. I’m strongly recommending an Over 67.5 play, located currently on Bet Rivers, though I see this line increasing in short order as it’s listed at 73.5 on the big domestic books.
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Money Parks, WR, Utah at Washington - Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
A true CFB Player Props All-American, for some reason The Books insist on listing the aptly named Money Parks at 35.5 Receiving Yards despite the fact that Parks hasn’t crossed the 35.5 receiving yards threshold since Week 1 when he caught a 70-yard bomb against Florida. Despite the initial explosion Parks’ longest reception since then has been only 22 yards, with his longest reception in the last 5 games outside of that going for 10 yards. Parks’ 15% drop rate has limited his downfield opportunities while his lack of explosiveness is laid bare in his inability to pile up YAC yardage, averaging less than 3.5 yards after catch in 7 of his last eight games. Compounding matters is the instability at the Utes’ QB position with Cam Rising being shut down for the season in recovery from his torn ACL in January, and the fact that fellow WR DeVaughn Vele is the unquestioned top receiving option for the Utes.
While Washington is extremely vulnerable in run defense, ranking 112th in rushing performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics, they are allowing just 6.5 yards per pass. This line is clearly in response to Utah likely to be in a trailing position against the high-powered Huskies in Seattle, which will no doubt earn Parks a higher target share. Despite that, the inaccuracy of Bryson Barnes and his lack of downfield prowess (just 4 completions of 20+ air yards) make the Under 35.5 Receiving Yards an attractive proposition.
Amari Niblack, TE, Alabama vs. Kentucky - Under 23.5 Receiving Yards
Frankly, I am shocked we even get a line on Niblack, nevermind the 23.5 Rec Yards he’s being posted at from our “Friends” over at FanDuel. Last week in a monolithic shootout versus LSU, we saw Maryland transfer CJ Dippre dominate the receiving work by logging 22 pass snaps while Niblack saw only 12. Both tight ends received just one target, with Dippre’s going for 11 yards and Niblack’s falling incomplete. Their usage is telling, as Bama was coming off a bye and their TE usage could be a harbinger of the snap distribution for each moving forward. Also of note is their opponent, Kentucky, who ranks dead last in FBS in offensive plays per game (55) and 124th in plays per second, as HC Mike Stoops does everything humanly possible to protect his defense and grind opponents down to a nub. Niblack hasn’t crossed 23.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games and is ticking downwards in his snap trajectory, as OC Tommy Reese simply hasn’t prioritized the TE position in the passing game like he did at Notre Dame. Given all these factors, I thinking Niblack’s Under 23.5 Receiving Yards props is worth a play.
