Week 3 College Football Player Props Primer and Best Bets
Jayden de Laura, Arizona - Opened at 262.5 Passing Yards | Now 291.5 Yards
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado - Opened at 323.5 Passing Yards | Now 341.5 Yards
Kaden Prather, WR, Maryland - Opened at 49.5 Receiving Yards | Now 34.5 Yards
Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington - Opened at 98.5 Receiving Yards | Now 84.5 Yards
Roman Hemby, RB, Maryland - Opened at 67.5 Rushing Yards | Now 83.5 Yards
Best Bets:
Dakereon Joyner, RB, South Carolina @ Georgia - 30.5 Rushing Yards
Week one against North Carolina, the Gamecocks were manhandled at the point of attack, rushing 18 times for 63 yards against the Tarheels, with Joyner kicking in 23 of those rush yards. You would think that SoCar would want to establish their ground game against FCS Furman last Saturday, but South Carolina ran for 116 yards on 37 carries, “good” for a 3.1 YPC average. Joyner only recorded 11 carries for 42 yards in the lopsided victory, and now faces the vaunted Georgia defensive front. As a recently converted receiver on a team that will be using a pass heavy game script against a national powerhouse, i’m going Under 30.5 rushing yards on Joyner.
Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina vs. Georgia - Over 199.5 Passing Yards
The clear identity of South Carolina is to rely on Spencer Rattler’s resurgent arm, with the former #1 overall high school player in the country carving up UNC for 353 yards in Week 1 before gassing it up against Furman last week for 345 pass yards. Obviously neither of those teams are Georgia, but with SoCar failing to run the ball against each of those inferior defenses, it’s hard to imagine that’s going to be the centerpiece of their gameplan against the Dawgs. Game flow-wise, I see SC throwing the ball 40 times after running into a wall in their first three drives. Accordingly, I am backing Rattler’s Over 199.5 Pass Yards while fading Joyner on the rushing side.
Jack Plummer, QB, Louisville vs. Indiana - 242.5 Passing Yards
Originally a Purdue recruit, Plummer spent 3 years under the tutelage of Louisville HC Jeff Brohm as Aidan O’Connell’s backup before transferring to Cal last year and thriving under OC Bill Musgrave’s pass-oriented offense. Though he was piloting a different team, Plummer cleared 242.5 passing yards in 9-of-12 games, only failing to clear that mark against Notre Dame, Oregon and Oregon State, three teams who were far more talented than the studious Golden Bears. Under HC Brohm, Purdue QB O’Connell cleared the mark in 8-of-4 games last year against FCS opponents, with only Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern slowing him down. Indiana is a far cry defensively from any of the teams listed here and returns just three starters on that side of the ball. So long as Indiana can remain competitive, I think we see Plummer put up his highest yardage total since arriving in Louisville and covers the 242.5 pass yardage mark.
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Brian Thomas, WR, LSU vs. Mississippi State - 49.5 Receiving Yards
When Thomas arrived in Baton Rouge three years ago, he and star WR Malik Nabers were both rated as elite high school prospects, with Thomas actually being the more heralded recruit according to his .9602 247Sports player rating. While Nabers broke out last season with a 1,000-yard campaign, Thomas finished fifth on the team with 31/361/5. However this year Thomas has come into his own, running 68 routes and catching 13-of-15 targets for 220 yards and three touchdowns as the primary outside WR opposite Nabers. They face a Miss State team that loses R1 NFL Draft pick CB Emmanuel Forbes and will benefit from the attention posed towards Nabers. I’m seeing Thomas’ line as low as 49.5 receiving yards out there on the open market, I think he’s a strong Over play in the low-50’s.
Theo Johnson TE, Penn State @ Illinois - 18.5 Receiving Yards
Penn State has a long, rich history of producing NFL caliber tight ends and have done a great job recruiting at that position in recent years. While Johnson entered the season as the favorite to emerge as PSU’s TE1 following the departure of Brenton Strange to the Jacksonville Jaguars, TE Tyler Warren has been to focal point of the passing game so far, catching 6-of-6 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown last week against Delaware while showing a rapport with QB Drew Allar. For his part, Johnson wasn’t targeted at all in Week 1 against West Virginia despite running 15 routes, and then caught 2-of-2 targets for 14 yards last week against Delaware. With Penn State lining up against Illinois and their strong linebackers corps led by Gabe Jacas and Tarique Barnes, i’m backing the trend and taking an Under position on Johnson at 18.5 Receiving Yards.
