Week 13 Betting Adjustments
Now that we’re in the second half of the NBA season with the trade deadline lurking on February 9, expect the drama to begin picking up.
A lot of noise has been made about the vultures circling the Toronto Raptors, but other teams are also in position to start trading away assets.
The true contenders are likely bulking up their rosters while the tankers are planning ahead for the future.
Now’s probably as good of a time as ever to revisit the win total market.
Parity, parity, parity.
That’s been the narrative all year about this NBA season.
Let’s look at some situations that haven’t gone as expected.
LEAGUE WIDE NOTES
Western Conference Power Shift
To open the 2022-23 NBA season, the LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, and Phoenix Suns were priced as the three favourites to win the Western Conference title.
Present day, all three have longer odds to reach the NBA Finals than they did on October 18.
LA is one game above .500 in sixth place while Golden State is .500 and Phoenix is down in 12.
At the top, the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies have proven to be legitimate threats for the Championship and represent a changing of the guard.
Kawhi Leonard is 31, Stephen Curry is 34, and Chris Paul is 37.
The leaders of the top-two Western Conference teams? They’re 23 and 27.
Over the last two weeks, those three “veteran” teams combined for a 6-14 record as they battle injuries.
While it’s fair to say they only care about playoff basketball, at some point they’ll need to shape into form.
Looking at FanDuel’s win total market, it’s clear oddsmakers aren’t expecting much during the regular season.
Nuggets – 54.5 wins
Grizzlies – 53.5 wins
Clippers – Unlisted
Warriors – 43.5 wins
Suns – 43.5 wins
I think there’s an opportunity to buy low on Golden State. I’d also anticipate Denver and Memphis loading up before February 9.
The play: Over win totals for Golden State, Memphis, and Denver
Thunder Refusing To Tank
On the subject of preseason storylines not playing out, how about the surging Thunder?
Their preseason win total got down to 22.5 after Chet Holmgren’s offseason injury.
44 games in, they’re two wins away with a 21-23 record, shattering all expectations.
OKC was one of several teams expected to jockey for a bottom three record in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Instead, they sit atop the league with the best record against the spread (28-16).
A large chunk of the credit must be given to the Canadian, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s fifth in scoring at 30.7 points per game. He’s never averaged above 25 ppg in any previous season.
He’s due to get his flowers come All-Star Weekend.
The Thunder are on two impressive runs of late – they’ve covered the spread in six straight games and hit the game total over in seven of their last eight.
They spanked the league’s top team for 150 points on January 3 and have subsequently beaten title contenders in Dallas, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn.
Teams seem to be sleeping on the Thunder thinking it’s a soft spot in the schedule.
The play: OKC ATS versus teams above .500
PLAYER PROPS
Triple-Double Watch For Domantas Sabonis
It’s not often an NBA trade results in an immediate win-win for both parties.
Last season’s trade between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings is proving it can be done.
The Pacers opened the year with a 23.5 win total, Sacramento opened at 33.5.
Their current lines sit at 40.5 and 42.5 wins respectively on FanDuel.
Replacing Richaun Holmes in Sacramento’s starting five, Sabonis has been a perfect fit alongside De’Aaron Fox.
The Kings are running a new high-octane offence with the fifth fastest pace in the NBA and the third best offensive rating.
With the additions of Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray, Sabonis has the paint all to himself and consistently operates on the elbow setting up his teammates.
He’s got more shooters to kick it out to and less competition on the glass.
It’s no surprise he’s averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists.
The big man has been particularly bankable against defences that lack an interior presence like the Toronto Raptors.
He’s averaging a near triple-double over the last two weeks – 20.0 ppg, 13.9 rpg, 9.1 apg.
The play: Sabonis over points + rebounds + assists combo against weak frontcourts
Scottie Barnes Rising Up
Amidst all the turmoil surrounding the Raptors, the 2022 Rookie of the Year has taken a leap forward of late.
Over the past month, defences have been adjusting to Barnes leaving him stranded on the three-point line. He’s being treated like Ben Simmons on offence.
At first, Barnes struggled to adapt, taking less shots and sitting back offensively.
But he’s figured out how to exploit the space he’s been given, scoring 20+ points in four of the last five games.
Up until New Year’s Eve, he only scored 20+ points in six of 33 games.
So what’s changed?
For starters, his three-point volume is way down. On the season, 20 per cent of his FGAs have been from deep. Over the last five games, only seven of his 63 shots came from behind the arc (11 per cent).
He’s also getting to the rim with conviction. 40 of his 63 shots (63.5 per cent) have been in the restricted area. On the season, 40 per cent of his shots were at the rim. His recent rate would place him amongst the very top in the NBA at rim frequency.
Lastly, he’s drawing fouls attacking that extra space. He’s averaging 8.2 trips to the line in this five-game stretch after averaging a measly 2.6 free-throw attempts in the games prior. He’s had 10 games this season without a FTA.
If defences keep shading off of him, scoring upside will remain particularly with teams that rank high in foul rate.
The play: Barnes over point props against teams with high foul rates
FUTURES
Jokic Proving To Be Inevitable
A month ago in this column, I wrote about Nikola Jokic and the historical obstacles he had to overcome to win a third straight MVP.
As LeBron James sets his sights on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s scoring record this season, I couldn’t envision the NBA granting a third straight MVP trophy when LBJ and Michael Jordan were robbed of that honour.
The last player to complete the feat was Larry Bird 37 years ago.
In that article, I created a checklist I felt Jokic had to tick off to win MVP:
- Denver to finish with the best record in the NBA
- Jokic to average a triple-double
- Jokic to finish with more points per game than 2021-22
While he hasn’t hit a single one yet, he’s improved in all three categories since my article prior to Christmas.
After peaking around +3600 to win MVP in November, his price has continuously shortened to its current price on FanDuel, +175.
He’s the favourite at the moment and continues to receive praise from the media.
It feels like I’ll be eating my words come award season. We’ve never seen a centre in the NBA like The Joker.
Then There Were Two
Gilgeous-Alexander has been the frontrunner for Most Improved Player since early November and continues to be listed as the favourite on FanDuel at -105.
By the end of November, three candidates emerged in a tier of their own – SGA, Lauri Markkanen, and Tyrese Haliburton.
Each player was having career-seasons and leading their teams well above their preseason win totals.
At the flip of the calendar, all three were priced below +600 for MIP.
But even though SGA has maintained his production, Markkanen has come through with a string of eye-popping performances, capped by a 49-point night in Houston.
He’s scored 20+ in 13 straight games.
Unfortunately, Haliburton went down last week with two overlapping injuries – a left elbow sprain and a left knee bone contusion. Initial projections have him missing multiple weeks and his uncertain status has dropped him way down the leaderboard to +2100.
So now, we’re left with two likely first-time All-Stars fighting for the top spot.
Both are equally deserving and are understandably priced above the rest.
Gilgeous-Alexander -105
Markkanen +130
The TSN Edge is a destination for information and analysis relating to fantasy and sports betting. This is not a gambling website. This site is for informational and recreational purposes only and provides no opportunity to gamble for real money or money’s worth.
