Week 15 Betting Adjustments

The trade deadline is less than 10 days away and All-Star Weekend is not far behind: welcome to the drama portion of the NBA regular season.

As it stands, the league is in a holding pattern as front offices wait on the biggest players to make the first move.

The vultures have been hovering over the Toronto Raptors for weeks now but as reported by Shams Charania of The Athletic, “rival teams have been informed that the franchise will make a decision about being a buyer or seller – or standing pat – near deadline day.”

With less than 30 games to go, most teams have a feel for their direction heading into the playoffs or the offseason.

Let’s examine some of the biggest betting opportunities for the coming week.

LEAGUE WIDE NOTES

It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia

What a time to be a Philly sports fan.

The Eagles are flying high as the Superbowl favourites, the Phillies wrapped up an impressive run to the World Series, and the Sixers have been the hottest team in the NBA since New Year’s.

After unexpectedly losing to the Magic earlier this week, the Sixers ended their seven-game win streak but still own the best record in January at 12-3.

On December 31, Philly was 4.5 games out of first place in the East with three teams in between them and Boston.

Since then, they’ve moved up two spots to third and only sit two losses behind the Celtics.

At one point, the Atlantic looked like a locked-up division with no opportunity to bet. Here were their prices on December 12:

Boston -3000

Brooklyn +2800

Philadelphia +3900

Toronto +3900

New York +18000

Present day, the Sixers have more bets to win the division than any of the other four teams according to FanDuel.

Their price to win the Atlantic has been bet down to +480.

To the credit of the betting public, the Sixers are really coming together, particularly on the offensive end.

From the time they were +3900 to win the division, their 119.1 offensive rating has been second-best in the NBA only behind Sacramento.

They were decimated by sporadic injuries over the course of the season but with Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey all healthy, they’ve been close to unstoppable.

They’ve been the fourth-best team ATS all season and gone over the game total in 15 of the last 19 games.

As a bonus, their defence has also slipped after sitting in the Top 5 for the first month and half of the season.

The play: Over PHI game totals

Too Many Cooks In The Magic Kitchen

The Magic have been favourites in just six games this season, but I expect that to change with more and more players returning from the injury list. Speaking of trade deadline stakeholders, Orlando might benefit from shipping off a player or two for future assets.

In the past month, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Isaac have all returned to the lineup and it’s causing quite the logjam in their rotation.

Bol Bol was one of the best stories over the first two months of the regular season, getting as low as +2100 to win the Most Improved Player Award.

He averaged 26.2 mpg and 12.1 ppg up until Christmas.

Over the last five games, he’s down to 17.0 mpg and 4.0 ppg.

Suggs has been active for almost a month now, but he’s down to 19.3 mpg over these past five after averaging 28.9 minutes over the first two months.

With the exception of Cole Anthony and Moritz Wagner, every player on the roster is averaging less ppg over the last five games versus the first 34 games prior to Christmas.

I don’t envy Head Coach Jamahl Mosley and the challenge he faces keeping all his players happy.

The play: Under player props in matchups versus top-tier defences

PLAYER PROPS

Freddy Bag Chasing?

On January 7, TSN’s Josh Lewenberg published an article mentioning a contract extension valued at $114 million that was turned down by VanVleet, according to a source.

There was some public pushback from FVV especially considering his poor form at that time.

The Raptors were in the midst of their freefall, sitting seven games back of .500.

I’m not claiming that interaction is directly correlated to improved performance from VanVleet, but these are his splits before and after.

Pre-Jan 7 – 37.1 mpg, 18.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 6.2 apg, 37.7 FG%, 32.5 3P%, 87.8 FT%

Post-Jan 7 – 36.5 mpg, 20.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 7.3 apg, 44.2 FG%, 38.8 3P%, 97.4 FT%

He’s improved in every single category while playing half a minute less over his past 12 games.

Raptors fans surely love it, as they’ve been one game above .500 since.

While the improvements are marginal, every edge counts in betting, and VanVleet has truly upped his performance with the trade deadline looming.

Type his name into Google or Twitter and you’ll see how often his name comes up in rumours.

Whether you believe the added attention is triggering this improvement doesn’t matter, he’s demonstrated improved play in January.

He did the same thing last year, averaging 23.8 ppg (career-high) for the month ahead of All-Star voting.

The play: VanVleet overs in matchups favourable to PGs ahead of Feb 9

Buy Low on AD

I think this window is incredibly narrow and will shut as soon as Tuesday night.

Anthony Davis returned to the Lakers lineup two games ago after missing 20 games with a right foot injury.

Understandably he was put on a minutes restriction, coming off the bench in both games.

Tonight, he’s expected to be back in the starting five at Madison Square Garden.

You might’ve forgotten, but prior to his injury, he was the No. 1 player in fantasy basketball and still owns that title per game even with Nikola Jokic’s recent form.

AD’s season came alive after LeBron James went down with a five-game injury in November, averaged 33.2 points and 17.6 rebounds.

But in the eight full-games AD played after LBJ’s return, he still had elite numbers – 34.8 ppg, 13.3 rpg.  

Davis has been abusing opposing frontcourts primarily playing at the centre position.

When active, he grabs 24.7 per cent of his team’s defensive rebounds, 91 percentile across the NBA.

He’s shooting 77 per cent at the rim and 45 per cent from short mid.

After playing 34 minutes on Saturday, I expect the training wheels to be removed.

AD’s point prop deserves to be in the mid to high 20s the rest of the season.

The play: Davis over point props until it gets above 26.5

FUTURES

MVP Trilogy?

Remember that Sixers trendline I mentioned above? That has trickled down to Embiid and his MVP odds.

For over 90 per cent of the season, Embiid was outside the Top-5 in the MVP conversation sitting anywhere between +1000 to +1300.

Two weeks ago, he slid into fifth due to Kevin Durant’s injury.

Present day, he’s +190 as the second favourite behind Jokic at +110.

Philly’s recent form has correlated to Embiid’s shortening number but it was the nationally broadcasted game versus the Nuggets, Jokic and Embiid’s first battle this season, that shifted the narrative.

Here were their MVP prices pre and post-game:

Pre-game:

Jokic -130

Embiid +800

Post-game:

Jokic -110

Embiid +330

Considering all the noise Jokic has garnered for his individual production, it’s their team record that catapulted The Joker to the MVP lead. Even on a two-game losing streak, they’re a full two games ahead of Memphis for the top spot out West.

For Philly, they own the league’s fourth-best record at the moment. If the Sixers pull of the improbable and overtake Boston for first, does Embiid not deserve favourite consideration?

He leads the league in scoring at 33.6 ppg, is in the 94 percentile for on/off rating, and has established himself as the most effective centre in clutch time, averaging 4.1 ppg during those scenarios.

Stat Padding Drama in Memphis

There was a Reddit thread started by user AdMassive6666 three days ago that caused a ripple in the Defensive Player of the Year futures market akin to something WallStreetBets would pull off.

The post accused Memphis’s scorekeeper of artificially inflating Jaren Jackson Jr.’s defensive stats.

The analysis was highlighted by these defensive splits for Jackson Jr:

Home averages (16 games):

4.1 blocks

1.4 steals

Away averages (16 games):

2.2 blocks

0.6 steals

It’s a pretty jarring gap, enough to fire up the conspiracy theorists.

The thread went viral and made its way to Twitter and ultimately some big names in sports media such as Kirk Goldsberry and Kevin O’Connor.

 — Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) January 28, 2023

It was so big that the NBA had to release a statement as well.

As a result, oddsmakers frantically responded to the noise shifting the pricing around.

Jackson floated around -200 to win DPOY and dropped to plus money for a period of time.

Second-option, Nic Claxton, went from +950 prior to his current +350.

In the end, cold water was poured over the entire situation but it’s a humourous story showing the influence Reddit can have.

Whether the allegations proved true or not, the viral discussion undoubtedly caused a shift in the market. 

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