Week 3 Player Props

Prop bet #1: Mr. Wright

The Tennessee Volunteers passing attack has yet to take off this season under Joe Milton III. The new starting quarterback has a mostly new cast of receivers to throw to and it looks like they’ll take some time to get up to speed without the services of Hendon Hooker, Cedric Tillman, and Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt. 

The good news is that they’ve been able to lean on a potent ground game averaging 6.1 yards per carry, which eases the burden for still-emerging aerial assault. Through two games, the Volunteers are averaging more rushing yards (257.5) than passing yards (222) per game.

Junior running back Jaylen Wright has been by far the most effective yard-churner, rushing for 233 yards on a superb 9.3 yards per attempt. His strong start isn’t a huge surprise to some following the team closely, who noted the young tailback was able to add weight this season while still maintaining his elite speed. He combined his elite speed — he’s been clocked at over 22 mph — with impressive physicality. 

Last year he gained 548 of his 875 yards after contact, averaging a robust 3.75 yards after contact per attempt. He’s putting up elite numbers again this season, gaining 4.76 yards after yards after contact per attempt to rack up 119 yards. He’s been elite, posting a 90.2 rushing grade per Pro Football Focus — third-best among backs with at least 20 carries this season. 

Wright’s rushing yards prop is set at just 59.5 this Saturday and that’s too low for my liking. Right now, he is the most effective player in this productive up-tempo scheme, and he should be relied on heavily in the conference opener against Florida. 

Jaylen Wright prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: All the way to the Banks

Dave Clawson’s Wake Forest Demon Deacons have a tried-and-true offensive system that has shown proof of concept. It’s one reason they’re able to surprise people year after year when expectations are not up to par. 

Since 2018, Clawson’s WR1 has averaged 74 receptions for 1,079 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jahmal Banks seemed like the most likely name to be the top target this year after breaking out for 636 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago. He was the team’s leading returning receiver after AT Perry (1,096 yards, 11 touchdowns) left for the NFL and Donavon Greene (642 yards, six touchdowns) was injured in Fall camp. 

Banks has followed through on his preseason expectations by leading the team in targets (13), receptions (10), receiving yards (142), and receiving touchdowns (2) through two games. He’s close to a dominant receiver as he is too much for most college defensive backs to cover, and Deacons quarterback Mitch Griffis clearly likes throwing his way.

Clawson’s WR1 has averaged 83 yards per game since 2018 and yet Banks’ receiving yards prop is set all the way down at 62.5. That’s too low, so I’ll be playing his Over.

Jahmal Banks prop: Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Badgering DBs

Going into last season, Arizona State Sun Devils wideout Elijah Badger had received overwhelmingly positive reviews in offseason practices. He fulfilled the promise that his coaches outlined for him, bursting out for 70 receptions for 866 yards and seven touchdowns — tops on his team in all three categories. 

He returns this season as the best player on an offense that has mostly new faces. The Sun Devils underwent a complete roster overhaul in Kenny Dillingham’s first offseason as head coach, welcoming 50 new scholarship players to the roster for this season — 31 of whom were Division I transfers. 

Badger should be in line for a big workload this season as the established veteran for an offense with a true freshman quarterback, two FCS transfers at running back and wide receiver, and three starting transfers along the offensive line. He was suspended for the first half of the team’s opening game against Southern Utah, so Badger's stat line of 99 yards through two games is artificially depressed. He responded with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2, and we should expect more big performances from him this season.

I expect Badger to see an even bigger workload on Saturday as the Sun Devils have been absolutely decimated by injuries to start the year. Six of the top nine offensive linemen are dealing with injuries, and it’s likely that at least two starters will miss Week 3’s matchup with the Fresno State Bulldogs. The skill positions are also banged up, as starting tight end Jalin Conyers and rotational running back DeCarlos Brooks will also be absent this Saturday due to injury. 

The targets will have to go somewhere, and Badger should be the alpha for a team that's in dire need of playmakers. The Bulldogs have also been less stingy than expected on defense, surrendering 33 points per game to start the year while allowing 243.5 passing yards per game. 

I’ll bet on Badger exceeding his receiving yards prop of 51.5 in Week 3. 

Elijah Banks prop: Over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)