Week 7 NFL picks, odds and best bets
I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking I was lucky to go 5-0 on NFL sides to start the season and that my current five-game losing streak is more indicative of my talent for picking NFL games. Well, not so fast. The San Francisco 49ers, listed as 6½-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns at the time my Week 6 picks were published, were bet up to 10-point favorites, indicating the market’s momentum was in our favor. It was only after the 49ers lost wide receiver Deebo Samuel and running back Christian McCaffrey that the game seemed truly in doubt. Add in bad weather and rookie Jake Moody’s two missed field goals, and the 49ers wound up with a 19-17 loss. Still, I think everyone would agree that taking a 6½-point favorite that is later bet up to 10 points is a wager worth making, especially since it should win 68 percent of the time.
As for the Atlanta Falcons — last week’s other best bet — they outplayed the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Atlanta generated more net yards per play, forced Washington into three-and-outs more often and had a higher success rate on offense, defined here as a play that improves a team’s chances of scoring on a particular drive. The deciding factor was turnovers. The Commanders had none, while the Falcons committed three, costing them an estimated 11 points, not insignificant in an eight-point game.
The player prop of the week, Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill going under 210½ passing yards, cashed again. Tannehill completed 8 of 16 passes for 76 yards and an interception in three quarters before suffering a right ankle injury that required him to be carted to the locker room.
Remember, selecting wagers is the easy part. The hard part is getting the players on the field to cooperate and ensure a return trip to the betting window to cash our tickets.
Best bets record:5-5
Player prop record: 4-1
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.
Bye: Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans
