Best Week 1 DraftKings Picks

Our favorite Week 1 picks and predictions based on DraftKings' NFL odds highlight matchups featuring Justin Jefferson, Darren Waller, and the Indianapolis Colts.

Here's a look at the best DraftKings-specific plays for Week 1 of the NFL season:

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Best DraftKings NFL Week 1 Picks

Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+105)

There will be few occurrences this season when bettors will be able to find a Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown prop at plus money.

The Vikings' superstar receiver and defending Offensive Player of the Year is coming off a season when he led the league with 1,809 receiving yards while adding eight touchdowns. That may seem like a modest touchdown total, but he was often double-teamed as the primary focus of the Vikings' offense. 

Jefferson opened last season with a bang. He hauled in 11 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns during a blowout win over the Green Bay Packers.

It's a smart bet to back the league's most explosive wideout to score against a leaky secondary, especially at these odds.

–– Mike McClymont (SBR | )

Colts -5 (-110)

I'm not quite ready to just anoint the Jaguars after they won a weak AFC South in 2022, especially since they needed to take the final five regular-season games to do so. Lawrence is great, and the comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the postseason was impressive. But the market might be inflating the Jags a bit too much at this point.

On the other side, I think the market is underrating the Colts. It's easy to forget that Indianapolis was everyone's default answer to win the AFC South just 12 months ago when Matt Ryan was the starting quarterback. Ryan committed 28 turnovers in 12 games, but that's not the only bit of poor luck the Colts endured.

The Colts went 4-6 in one-score games and 1-4 in contests when they held a 70% or higher win probability in the fourth quarter, according to ClevAnalytics. Indianapolis was on the wrong side of variance in 2022, leading to a lower outlook for this team.

Bettors are also probably scared off of the Colts because of their rookie quarterback. But mobile quarterbacks tend to find their footing much faster in the NFL, and I have no doubt that Shane Steichen will develop a scheme that plays to the QB's otherworldly traits.

Based on my power ratings, we're getting some value on the home divisional underdog in Week 1. The Colts recorded a 34-27 home victory over the Jaguars in Week 6 during 2022, and they haven't lost to their division rival at Lucas Oil Stadium since 2017.

Take the points in a game that could be much more competitive than most are expecting.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | )

Darren Waller Over 4.5 receptions (-105)

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off a season when he produced a career-high 60.8 total QBR (ranked sixth in the NFL) and a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones also notched career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and passing yards (3,205).

Jones was fifth in total QBR (88) and completion percentage (78%) when targeting tight ends in 2022, and fourth in first-down percentage (46%). He looked to have established a good rapport with Darren Waller in the preseason, as the tight end recorded three catches for 30 yards in his one game of action, with four of Jones' first six passes going his way. 

This is a four-star play because last year the Cowboys' defense produced the highest pressure rate in a season since 2009 (39.2%), so expect several short and quick throws to Waller to negate Dallas' pass rush. Caesars is the only other shop with this prop available, and it charges a slightly higher price of -109 for Waller to post five-plus receptions.

–– Mike Spector (SBR | )

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief of Sportsbook Review. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications across North America. His first book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles. James has also been quoted as a sports betting expert in USA Today and Sports Illustrated.