West Virginia vs. Houston prediction: College football picks, bets

Is it finally time to respect West Virginia? 

The Mountaineers are now 4-1 SU and ATS after last week’s three-point road win over TCU.

Somehow, Neal Brown has won six of his past eight games, removing himself from the hot seat. 

But can Brown’s Mountaineers continue their hot streak against Dana Holgorsen’s Houston Cougars? 

I’m betting yes. 

West Virginia vs. Houston prediction

(7 p.m. ET., FS1)

Houston is a middling College Football team. 

The Cougars are 86th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play and 111th in EPA per Play allowed.

They’re 72nd in Success Rate and 85th in Success Rate allowed.

There’s no specific area where the Cougars excel, but Houston’s rush defense is especially weak, ranking 123rd in EPA per Rush allowed and 94th in Rush Success Rate allowed. 

The Cougars allow around 160 rush yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry, and those numbers are inflated from games against Rice (69 rush yards allowed on 31 attempts) and Sam Houston State (52 rush yards allowed on 25 attempts). 

Houston lost a lot of talent in the front seven over the offseason, including six defensive linemen from last year’s squad.

That inexperience shows.

The Cougars allowed over 200 rushing yards in a game to TCU, Texas Tech, and UTSA. 

Their rush defense is the key to this handicap. 

West Virginia’s passing game is non-existent, so the Mountaineers have moved to a triple-option rush attack headlined by quarterback Garrett Greene.

The Mountaineers are not an elite college football offense.

But at least they have an identity.

They run the ball 45 times per game, which ranks fourth nationally, averaging around 200 rush yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry. 

Lead back CJ Donaldson has close to 350 yards rushing this year, while quarterback Greene has close to 200. 

West Virginia’s rush efficiency metrics are middling, but the Mountaineers should have no issues establishing the run against Houston’s horrific rush defense.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers’ defense will be the best unit on the field. 

Surprisingly, West Virginia’s defense has been near-dominant.

The Mountaineers are 13th nationally in Success Rate allowed and eighth in EPA per Play allowed.

They’ve been solid against the run (3.3 yards per carry allowed), against the pass (50% completion rate allowed) and have been solid in both Standard and Passing Downs. 

After transferring from Minnesota, cornerback Beanie Bishop has been a revelation, ranking sixth among qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’s Defensive grades.

Bishop has six pass breakups and 28 tackles on the young season.

Betting on College Football?

This West Virginia defense should have no issues shutting down a middling Houston offense, and the West Virginia offense should move the rock against a pathetic Houston rush defense. 

So, this handicap seems clear as day. 

Bet the Mountaineers to win comfortably. 

West Virginia vs. Houston pick

West Virginia -3 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook) | Play to -3.5 (-110)