What Are Indiana's National Championship Odds?

The 2022-2023 basketball season began with high hopes in Bloomington, Indiana. Indiana Hoosier fans were hopeful that second-year head coach Mike Woodson would be able to follow up a successful first season with a possible Big Ten Championship and a run in the NCAA Tournament.

All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis was back along with point guard Xavier Johnson and veteran big man Race Thompson. In addition, the Hoosiers had added a pair of highly rated incoming freshmen, Jalen Hood-Schifino and Malik Reneau. IU was ranked near the top ten in most preseason polls and considered a co-favorite with Illinois to win the conference.

The Hoosiers got off to a nice start and won at Xavier, plus hammered North Carolina at home, but things began to go sideways when the calendar turned to December.

Indiana was dominated at Rutgers, lost in Las Vegas to Arizona, and then went down at Kansas. Xavier Johnson hurt his foot and has been out since that December 17 game. Indiana also lost Race Thompson to injury while dropping games to Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State. Neither Johnson nor Thompson are expected back until February at the earliest, and the Hoosiers enter the weekend at 11-6 (2-4). 

Here’s a look at Indiana’s chances and odds of winning the national championship and other numbers on FanDuel:

College Basketball National Championship Winner: +10000

One of the early-season betting favorites to challenge for the National Championship, the Indiana Hoosiers are now a long shot at +10000. That places them right alongside schools like Memphis, Missouri, and Auburn and with longer odds than Maryland, San Diego State, and Ohio State, to name a few.

Indiana has earned the slide as the offense and defense have dropped, and everything from effort to coaching acumen is being questioned with each uncompetitive outing. They surrendered 18 made three-pointers in a rout at Penn State last week. No matter how favorable the odds are, there is little reason to think placing any money on Indiana University would be a smart move.

Big Ten Conference Winner: +7500

Not only are the Hoosiers +10000 to win the national title, but they are also +7500 to win the Big Ten outright. That’s a considerable number, but entering this weekend, the Hoosiers are 2-4 in the conference and near the bottom of the Big Ten.

Purdue is 5-1, and Michigan State is 4-2 in the league and appears to have separated themselves at the top, while Wisconsin (3-3), Northwestern (3-3), and Rutgers (4-2) all have at least two losses. It would take a miracle for the Hoosiers to even get back into contention for a bye in the Big Ten Tournament, let alone win the league outright.

KenPom Offensive Rating: 25th in Adjusted Offense

The Hoosiers have the 25th-rated adjusted offense on Ken Pomeroy’s rating system, a number that is a bit kind to the current basketball IU is playing, thanks to solid performances early on in the season.

For example, IU scored at least 80 points in its first five games and topped that number a few more times in December and early January. Indiana has shot the three better than most anticipated, but the Hoosiers don’t attempt a high volume and still relymid-range and paint points. 

KenPom Defensive Rating: 63rd in Adjusted Defense

The defense has been the major problem for Indiana. A strength in 2021-2022, this part of the game has cratered for the Hoosiers this season and has gotten even worse in recent weeks without Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson.

Against major competition since Johnson’s injury, IU has surrendered 84 points to Kansas, 91 to Iowa, 84 to Northwestern, and 85 to Penn State.

The Hoosiers don’t appear capable of effectively executing the switching defense Mike Woodson wants to employ, and that leaves three-point shooters wide open far too often. Northwestern attacked Indiana off the dribble, Penn State easily found open shooters, and there don’t seem to be solutions for the banged-up Hoosiers. 

Buy or Sell the Hoosiers?

You’d be hard-pressed to even find a handful of diehard Indiana Hoosiers basketball fans that would advise you to buy stock of this team right now. That being written, Indiana went on a very nice run towards the tail end of the 2022 season, and their play down the stretch catapulted them into the NCAA Tournament.

Placing even a small wager on Indiana to win the NCAA Tournament would be akin to setting your money on fire. Still, if the Hoosiers can make some adjustments on the defensive scheme and if Race Thompson and Xavier Johnson can return as expected in February, this might be a team to keep an eye on later in the season.

There might be pretty good value on the Hoosiers to cover some inflated spreads once those guys return, and if you can find odds on teams to make the NCAA Tournament, IU is likely a good value on that market, as it is hard to imagine a lower point for this team.