What Ireland's win over South Africa means for Scotland and Pool B qualification

Wales Online

23 September 2023

What Ireland's win over South Africa means for Scotland and Pool B qualification

Ireland have taken a huge step towards the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals after beating reigning champions South Africa in Paris.

In a ferocious contest, the Irish edged the encounter 13-8, with Mack Hansen scoring their only try.

The victory puts Ireland fourpoints clear at the top of the Pool B, with the Springboks in second place and Scotland - who play just their second game of the tournament on Sunday - in third.

Pool B is the most stacked group in the competition, with three of the top five teams in the world all drawn in the same group due to a World Cup draw that took place way back in 2020. It was always going to be a big ask for Gregor Townsend's side to get through to the knockout stages, but Saturday's result has made clear what they must do in order to defy the odds.

So what does Ireland's win mean for the group, and what results do Scotland need to get through?

The first thing to look at is the criteria by which Rugby World Cup Pools are decided if teams are level on points.

Rugby World Cup pool stage tiebreakers, in order:

The winner of the match between two tied teams is ranked higher.
The team with the best points difference in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team which has scored the most points in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team which has scored the most tries in the pool stages is ranked higher.

So, if three teams are tied on points and have all beaten each other, the winner will likely be decided by points difference.

World Rugby then state: "For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at criterion 1 (ie, who won the head-to-head between the two remaining sides).

Saturday's result has put Ireland on 14 points, South Africa on 10 and left Scotland (currently on 0 points with three games to go) knowing they need to win all three remaining matches, potentially with three bonus points.

But, if the Scots secure bonus point wins against Tonga and Romania, as they will hope to do, any win over Ireland in the final match without the Irish securing a losing bonus point will still likely put them through. South Africa will expect to get a bonus point win over Tonga, given what we have seen so far, meaning they would finish on 15 points.

There is a scenario by which all three sides could finish on 14 or 15 points. In that case, the winner of the Pool would then be decided on points difference, with second place going to whichever team won the head-to-head between the two remaining sides. So, if Ireland top the group on points difference, South Africa will go through in second as they beat Scotland. If South Africa top the group, Scotland would go through as they would have beaten Ireland. And, if Scotland top the group on points difference, Ireland go through in second as they beat South Africa.

Two bonus points against Scotland puts Ireland through, even if they lose that match. Anything but victory over Ireland means the Scots are out, barring a Springboks disaster against Tonga.

To summarise, South Africa and Scotland can still reach 15 points with bonus point wins in their matches. If Ireland lose to Scotland, they could yet finish on 14, 15 or 16 points. If they beat or even draw with Scotland, the group is theirs.