What Scotland's win over Tonga means for Ireland match and Pool B qualification

Wales Online

24 September 2023

What Scotland's win over Tonga means for Ireland match and Pool B qualification

Scotland kept their hopes of reaching the last eight of the Rugby World Cup alive with a comfortable 45-17 bonus point victory over Tonga in Nice.

Scotland ran in seven tries with the main talking point of the match the decision not to upgrade a yellow card to a red after Tonga wing Afusipa Taumoepeau made direct contact with the head of Jamie Ritchie. But Gregor Townsend's side remain five points off second placed South Africa, and nine points behind from Pool B leaders Ireland who sensationally beat the Springboks last night.

Pool B has been appropriately labelled the pool of death with three of the five top-ranked sides in the world, including the defending champions, all drawn in the same group. It was always going to be a big ask for Gregor Townsend's side to get through to the knockout stages, but this weekend's results has made clear what they must do in order to defy the odds.

So, what do Scotland need to do to reach the quarter-finals? Well, the first thing they need to do is win their remaining two games against Romania and Ireland, respectively, and hope other results go their way.

We must also look at what happens if three sides are level on points upon the conclusion of the pool stage.

Rugby World Cup pool stage tiebreakers, in order:

The winner of the match between two tied teams is ranked higher.
The team with the best points difference in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team which has scored the most points in the pool stages is ranked higher.
The team which has scored the most tries in the pool stages is ranked higher.

So, if three teams are tied on points and have all beaten each other, the winner will likely be decided by points difference. World Rugby then state: "For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at criterion 1 (ie, who won the head-to-head between the two remaining sides).

Ireland's 13-8 victory over South Africa has put Andy Farrell's men on 14 points, South Africa on 10, while Scotland are on five points. If Scotland secure a bonus point win over Romania any win over Ireland in the final match without the Irish securing a losing bonus point will still likely put them through. South Africa will expect to get a bonus point win over Tonga, given what we have seen so far, meaning they would finish on 15 points.

There is a scenario by which all three sides could finish on 14 or 15 points. In that case, the winner of the Pool would then be decided on points difference, with second place going to whichever team won the head-to-head between the two remaining sides.

So, if Ireland top the group on points difference, South Africa will go through in second as they beat Scotland. If South Africa top the group, Scotland would go through as they would have beaten Ireland.

And, if Scotland top the group on points difference, Ireland go through in second as they beat South Africa. Two bonus points against Scotland puts Ireland through, even if they lose that match.

Anything but victory over Ireland means the Scots are out, barring a Springboks disaster against Tonga. To summarise, South Africa and Scotland can still reach 15 points with bonus point wins in their matches.

If Ireland lose to Scotland, they could yet finish on 14, 15 or 16 points. If they beat or even draw with Scotland they will qualify as group winners setting up a likely quarter-final against New Zealand in Paris.