Where the SF Giants' playoff odds stand after the trade deadline

In a very competitive National League West race, the San Francisco Giants took the somewhat surprising step at the trade deadline to mostly stand pat. Sure, the Giants added AJ Pollock for some lineup depth, but that move isn't likely to move the needle much. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks were significantly more aggressive at the deadline which has caused some amount of concern amongst Giants fans.

Time will tell as to which approach ends up working out the best, but clues can be garnered from what the various prediction engines think about the Giants' playoff chances after the deadline compared to their odds just before the deadline.

For this thought exercise, Fangraphs' rolling playoff odds along with those will be the odds used. Both have different methods for making projections which should, in theory, give a more complete picture of where the Giants currently stand in the National League playoff race.

At the trade deadline, Fangraphs had the Giants with a 65.9% chance of making a playoffs with a 14% chance of winning the National League West. Now, a week later to allow for the moves from around the league some chance to marinate, things have gotten a bit more interesting. San Francisco's playoff odds have actually gone up to 74.1% that has to do with the Diamondbacks' recent struggles more than anything. However, the Giants' chances of winning the division have gone down to 9.5% in Fangraphs' eyes.

Baseball-Reference paints a similar picture although they are less bullish on San Francisco's chances. B-Ref has the Giants with a 64.7% chance of making the playoffs and with just a 4.3% of winning the National League West. One silver lining for San Francisco fans is that Baseball-Reference agrees that the Giants' playoffs chances have gone up since the deadline with a 7.3% jump over the last week.

Again, there is a lot of baseball left and we'll know soon enough if the Giants deciding not to be aggressive at the trade deadline will work out. However, it does seem like that the numbers seem to agree that the Giants remain in a really good position in 2023.