Texas Rangers' playoff odds with a month to go: The division is slipping away

The Texas Rangers did exactly what you would want any contending team to do at the trade deadline. They identified areas of need and aggressively pursued options to fill those voids. No team made as much noise as Texas did and given how they had played up to that point, all signs were that this was a team to fear down the stretch.

Unfortunately, that is not what has happened. Despite putting up a respectable 15-12 record in August, a recent slump (plus some heaters from Houston and Seattle) has put Texas in an uncomfortable position in the division race and have made their playoff picture look decidedly more murky than it was a month ago.

Making predictions over a month's worth of games is decidedly tricky and the prediction engines that try to pull it off use varied variables in often very different ways. As a result, when trying to make sense of where the Rangers stand in terms of playoff odds, it is often best to use multiple sources to try to get the most complete picture.

When looking at Fangraphs' playoff odds for the rest of the 2023 season, the Rangers currently have a very respectable 71.1% chance of making it to the postseason with the Blue Jays seeming to be the most likely team to play spoiler. However, Fangraphs also only puts the Rangers' chances at winning the AL West at 15.1 % despite only being a game out. That is nearly a 20% drop from where they were at the trade deadline.

Baseball-Reference seems to like the Rangers a bit more as they give Texas a 20% chance of winning the division and a slightly more robust 73.3% chance of making it to the playoffs.

In short, it is still highly likely we will see the Rangers making the postseason this year. However, it does seem more and more likely that they are going to have fight things out in the wild card round and that is not a place you want to be in the AL this season.