White Sox vs. Guardians predictions, picks, odds: Good buy-low, sell-high spot

We have White Sox vs. Guardians predictions, picks and odds as the Southsiders look to build off their weekend sweep of the Royals.

The White Sox are, surprisingly, playing good baseball. They’ve won five of six and will attempt to steal back-to-back series from the rival Guardians.

Meanwhile, Cleveland needs to bounce back after getting swept by the Mets. As you can probably infer, the Guards have lost four of five entering Monday.

However, water always finds its level, so I’ll likely find myself on the Guards here.

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.

It’s a good time to sell high on the White Sox. Given this team is horrendous, I expect them to drop a game after stringing together mediocre victories against mediocre competition (the Royals are very bad).

Also, I’m not that confident in Chicago’s pitching plan today.

Chicago’s projected starting pitcher, Mike Clevinger, went down due to a wrist injury, so Jimmy Lambert is on the mound as an opener, indicating a bullpen game. Unfortunately, the White Sox used three of their better relievers in Sunday’s win, including potential multi-inning guys Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton and Aaron Bummer.

The White Sox bullpen depth is nothing to write home about, so I’m pretty happy to fade that situation on Monday.

Meanwhile, it’s a great time to buy low on the Guardians after a few losses. Specifically, it’s an excellent time to buy low on rookie starting pitcher Hunter Gaddis.

Gaddis’ 6.86 ERA after five starts sparks little hope, but he has an immaculate batted-ball profile, ranking above the 90th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate (29.4%) and Barrel Rate (1.5%) allowed. As a result, Gaddis’ xERA sits at 3.12.

Moreover, I still think Gaddis has strikeout potential. He’s consistently mowed down hitters at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, primarily using a cutter with above-average glove-side break.

Speaking of Minor League Baseball: Gaddis is also making his first MLB start since mid-April, as he was sent down to Triple-A Columbus after a few rough starts. I hope he figured something out during his four MiLB starts, although the numbers aren’t great (5.12 ERA, 24 K in 19 1/3 innings).

Regardless, I’d rather bet on Gaddis and a rested Guardians bullpen (Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak are both available) than Lambert and a stretched White Sox pen.

Of course, betting on the Guardians comes with a caveat: We’re betting on the worst lineup in baseball.

However, the difference between the White Sox and Guardians over the past few weeks is minimal. The White Sox are 19th in wRC+ over the past two weeks (90), while the Guardians are 25th (83).

Meanwhile, the Guardians have monster advantages on the basepaths – Cleveland is the third-best base-running team in the league by FanGraphs’ numbers, while Chicago is 20th) – and on defense.

I think we’re getting Gattis and Cleveland cheap in the markets on Monday, especially against an overvalued White Sox team in a weird situational spot. I’ll happily play the Guardians ML at around (-125) or better.

Cleveland Guardians ML (-120) | Play to (-125)

Moneyline: White Sox (+100) vs. Guardians (-120)

Spread: White Sox +1.5 (-190) vs. Guardians -1.5 (+155)

Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)