White Sox vs. Guardians predictions, odds, picks: Target the total on Tuesday

The Southsiders dropped a tough one to Cleveland yesterday, managing only three hits in a 3-0 loss and setting up our White Sox vs. Guardians predictions, odds and picks for Tuesday.

Given the Guardians’ horrific offense, these AL Central games often trend lower scoring.

However, I think the opposite will happen in Tuesday’s matchup.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

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(6:10 p.m. ET, BSGL)

White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease has taken a monster step back this season. His fastball velocity is down a tick, his strikeout rate is down over 6% from last season, and his ERA is 2.50 runs higher.

And none of it has to do with luck. Cease’s expected ERA is sitting above 4.50, as he’s giving up more hard contact than ever (48.7% Hard-Hit rate allowed, 17% higher than last season).

Cease’s slider is still relatively effective, but his four-seam fastball and curveball boast a combined +9 Run Value. You can’t get past Major League batters with one effective pitch.

So, while Cleveland boasts the worst lineup in MLB, I don’t think the market has caught up to Cease’s regression.

Guardians’ starting pitcher Logan Allen has a 3.04 ERA, but he’s also way overvalued, boasting an expected ERA north of 5.00. Cleveland’s No. 8 overall prospect has a high ceiling, especially with his strikeout potential, but he’s currently struggling with hard contact at the Major League level.

Meanwhile, we get to bet on the southpaw-hitting White Sox. The White Sox have been better against left-handed pitching for three straight seasons, and this year is no different, as they boast a 106 wRC+ against the left side compared to an 87 wRC+ against the other.

Neither bullpen is very good. The Guardians could be construed as an above-average bullpen, but they used four of their better relievers in Monday’s loss, so they’ll be stretched thin on Tuesday.

And neither defense is good. These are two below-average fielding teams by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average (the White Sox are slightly worse by both numbers, for what it’s worth).

So, between two overvalued starting pitchers, two average bullpens, two below-average defenses and the White Sox platoon splits, I think this total is a tad low.

Our Action Network PRO model projects Tuesday’s total at around 8.98, so we’re getting a solid edge on the over 8 (-118) available at FanDuel.

Over 8 (-118) | Play to 8.5 (-110)

Moneyline: White Sox (+108) vs. Guardians (-126)

Spread: White Sox +1.5 (-192) vs. Guardians -1.5 (+158)

Total: Over 8 (-118) | Under 8 (-104)