White Sox vs. Pirates odds, prediction: Chicago tests red-hot Pittsburgh
We have a White Sox vs. Pirates prediction as Chicago travels to Pittsburgh for the beginning of a three-game set.
The Pirates are flying high, as they just walked into Fenway Park and swept the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the White Sox need a bounce-back after losing two of three against San Francisco.
The Lucas Giolito-Rich Hill pitching matchup is intriguing, although the former probably has an advantage. I also wonder if the Pirates are due for some regression.
Moneyline: White Sox (-134) vs. Pirates (+114)
Spread: White Sox -1.5 (+126) vs. Pirates -1.5 (-152)
Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Chicago White Sox ML (-134) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Hill is in the twilight of his career, and it shows. All his offerings come in under 90 mph, and he mostly relies on a bendy curveball alongside a snail’s pace fastball.
Hill survived his lone season with the Red Sox, posting a 4.27 ERA across 124 1/3 innings. However, he got blown up in his first start as a Pirate, allowing three runs on three hits across five innings, including two home runs.
Hill won’t post an ERA above 5.00 for the rest of the season, but I could see him struggling again here.
The White Sox mash lefties. They’ve been a top-five lineup against southpaws for three straight seasons (by wRC+), per FanGraphs. And through 51 plate appearances in this short season, the White Sox are the seventh-best lineup against left-handed pitchers in MLB (132 wRC+).
San Francisco’s Alex Wood pitched pretty well against the White Sox on Thursday, but he has major league stuff to rely on. Unfortunately, Hill won’t have that luxury on Friday.
Meanwhile, Giolito opened 2023 with a solid start against the ever-dangerous Astros, allowing only two runs over five innings. He struck out six and walked only one, so his FIP is only 2.03.
The Pirates scored 15 runs in the three-game sweep over Boston, but the Red Sox pitching staff is horrific, and Fenway is an uber-high run-scoring environment. Guaranteed Rate Field is also a hitter’s park, but the Pirates’ offense should see regression from Boston to Chicago.
The White Sox also have the bullpen advantage, especially because their top-five relievers all rested Thursday in a blowout loss. I love Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, but the Pirates are weaker in the mid-relief area.
Ultimately, I’m banking on a bounce-back performance from the White Sox and a letdown from the Pirates, especially considering the matchup angles. I grabbed the White Sox ML (-134) at FanDuel Sportsbook, but I feel comfortable playing them up to (-140).
