Blue Jays vs Pirates Picks, Odds & Player Props to Target (May 5)

May 3, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates his homerun against the Boston Red Sox with manager John Schneider (14) during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

• Toronto is a -140 favorite in the Blue Jays vs Pirates odds on Friday
• Pittsburgh enters play having dropped four straight, while Toronto is mired in a five-game losing streak

Up until Monday, no team in the National League had a better record than the Pirates. No, that is not a typo. The perennial NL Central bottom feeders had won 20 of their fist 28 games and had just scored 22 runs in two games over the weekend versus Washington.

Fast forward five days, and Pittsburgh (20-12, 9-4 home) has dropped four straight and online sportsbooks don’t expect the bleeding to stop on Friday versus the Blue Jays. Toronto (18-14, 9-11 away) has been pegged road favorites in MLB odds, as they look to snap a five-game losing streak of their own.

Blue Jays vs Pirates Odds

The Blue Jays are currently -140 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 pm ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA, with sunshine and 61 degree game-time temperatures in the forecast.

Odds as of May 4th at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel Sportsbook promo code for Friday’s Toronto/Pittsburgh MLB game. 

Toronto vs Pittsburgh Probable Pitchers

Toronto will give the ball to Chris Bassitt, who’s fresh off one of the worst outings of his season. He allowed four runs to the Mariners in 5 innings work, walking four. Free passes have been a major issue for the 34-year-old this season, as he’s coughed up at least three in four of his past five starts.

Chris Bassitt is NOT happy pic.twitter.com/sblgfiCyo8

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 30, 2023

Base on balls haven’t plagued Bassitt since he entered the league, but his current 1.8 K/BB rate is his lowest mark since 2016. The good news is that he has a decent sample size of history versus Pittsburgh batters in the MLB lineups, and he’s performed very well.

Bassit has limited Pirates hitters to a .200 average and .273 OBP over 40 at-bats. 10 of those 40 at-bats have resulted in strikeouts, while Carlos Santana and Rodolfo Castro are the only two players to record extra-base hits.

Bassit vs Hill Stats

Pittsburgh meanwhile, will counter with lefty Rich Hill. The 43-year-old has pitched very well since back-to-back rocky starts in early April, turning back the clock. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last four starts, and enters play with 19 strikeouts over his last three outings – which is well above his season long rate.

If there’s an area of concern, it’s that at 43, Hill relies primarily on off-speed pitches to get batters out. When he’s on, that can work beautifully, but when he’s off, balls are left up in the strike zone free for hitters to tee off on. That’s what happened early in the season, as he surrendered seven home runs in his first 21 innings of work.

Toronto certainly has the firepower to make you pay for mistakes, and has still been putting up big numbers in spite of their current skid.

Toronto vs Pittsburgh Predictions

The Blue Jays have scored 27 runs during their five-game losing streak. They’re averaging just under five runs per game so far in 2023, ranking above league average in slugging and OPS.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. smacked seven hits over Toronto’s latest four-game series versus the Red Sox, crushing two home runs. Guerrero Jr. has vaulted himself into top-three contender status in the AL MVP odds, while his teammate Matt Chapman leads the AL in average and OPS.

Neither Guerrero Jr. or Chapman have an extensive track record against Hill, but they both feast on lefties. Guerrero Jr. is slashing .417/.517/.458 against southpaws this season, while Chapman is slashing .536/.536/.893.

After his 450-footer over the Green Monster earlier in this series, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit this one 441.

Here's some real footage of a good thing happening to the #BlueJays today: pic.twitter.com/rUhzT2oeUX

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) May 4, 2023

The problem for Toronto has been keeping runs off the scoreboard, which opens the door for the Pirates lineup to bounce back. Pittsburgh has scored only six runs during its four game slide, after crossing the plate 44 times in their previous five outings.

The Pirates have gotten quality production from several veteran players such as Bryan Reynolds, Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen, as they all boast an OPS north of .790. Santana in particular has fared well versus Bassit over the years, collecting three extra-base hits, including two homers, in nine at-bats.

The Blue Jays combination of strong batting and underwhelming pitching has led to a surge of overs lately, and this game should follow suit. Toronto’s bullpen has been especially bad, posting an ERA of 5.65 over the last five days. That’s helped five straight contests exceed the total, with all five producing at least 10 runs.

Pick: Over 9 Runs (-105), Matt Chapman 1+ Hits (-230), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-130)

NFLNBAMLBNHLGolfNCAAFNCAABTennisSports Writer

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

NFLNBAMLBNHLGolfNCAAFNCAABTennis

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.