Who will win Breeders' Cup Classic 2023? Odds, expert picks, longshots for Saturday's race at Santa Anita
Horse racing's season-ending crowning event is upon us, as the 40th edition of the Breeders' Cup World Championships begins today at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
The featured race on the two-day card is the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic, which runs Saturday at Santa Anita. Post time is set for 6:40 p.m. ET with live coverage on NBC and Peacock.
Sporting News caught up with DraftKings Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello -- who was at Santa Anita taking in Thursday's card -- to help handicap the Breeders' Cup Classic.
As we offer up Breeders' Cup Classic odds, expert picks and predictions, we'll also focus on finding mid-range and longshots to include as value bets.
The $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic features a field of 12 horses headlined by morning-line favorite Arabian Knight. The race is contested over 10 furlongs. The field was trimmed to an even dozen when Belmont Stakes and Travers winner Arcangelo was scratched (due to a left hind foot issue) and subsequently retired.
“With Arcangelo out, some of the horses will be shortened up on price,” Avello said.
Breeders' Cup Classic 2023: Odds & post positions
Here's a look at 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic morning-line odds.
Morning-line odds are simply a prediction by the track handicapper of what each horse’s price will be. They have no bearing on the odds a bettor ultimately receives on a bet. With pari-mutuel wagering, odds are determined by the amount of money bet on each entry, and closing odds are the prices at which each bet is effective.
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Top contenders in Breeders' Cup Classic 2023
Arabian Knight (3-1 odds)
Trained by Bob Baffert, Arabian Knight is coming off a victory in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar back in September. Arabian Knight has just four career starts. He's won three of those at three different tracks: Del Mar, Oaklawn Park, and Keeneland.
Arabian Knight could deliver Baffert's fifth win in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Jockey Flavien Prat gets the ride on Arabian Knight after winning last year's Breeders' Cup Classic aboard Flightline.
Avello is impressed by what he's seen from the lightly raced colt.
“I’m looking at Arabian Knight a little bit with four races and three wins," he said. "There’s a long way to go for this horse to improve. His last race was back on Sept. 2, but the workouts look real good. If the horse doesn’t get into a speed duel and settles somewhere, I’d look for him to be in the mix.”
Pace is usually a critical factor in how a race ultimately plays out, and Avello used two words to describe what he expects to see in the Classic.
"Very hot," he said. "You think there’s going to be a pretty good pace because Saudi Crown certainly likes to go to the front and Arabian Knight’s a frontrunner. Then, there’s a couple other horses there that show early speed. If you’re one of those speed horses, you’re going to have to take it back a little bit and rate.
“Otherwise, you’re gonna go out and kill each other.”
White Abarrio (4-1 odds)
Fun fact: My mother always likes to bet gray horses, and she gets a shot here with White Abarrio. It's been 10 weeks since White Abarrio last raced and ran away to a Whitney Stakes victory at Saratoga. In that race, White Abarrio produced the highest speed figure (116) of his 14-race career.
Avello was at Saratoga for the Whitney, and cashed a nice ticket on White Abarrio's most recent race.
"I actually caught that exacta with White Abarrio on top at 10-1 that day," he said. "Zandon was about 4.5-1. The exacta didn’t pay as much as I thought it should have, but it was still a pretty lucrative payoff.”
The question for trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is whether he can get White Abarrio to replicate that performance after such a significant layoff against the best horses in the world.
Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets the ride after carrying White Abarrio to victory in the Whitney, which secured his berth in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Ushba Tesoro (4-1 odds)
Japan is well represented in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic with Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake both gunning for the country's first-ever Classic win. Based on morning-line odds, it's Ushba Tesoro who'll threaten most for that milestone win.
Since racing exclusively on dirt, Ushba Tesoro has won six of seven starts dating back to last year. Check out his incredible from last-to-first finish in the Dubai World Cup here.
Breeders' Cup Classic longshots and value bets at mid-range odds
In our quest to identify mid-range priced horses and a longshot who could win the Breeders' Cup Classic, we looked at three options for value bets.
Derma Sotogake
The Japanese horse was heavily bet in this year's Kentucky Derby before finishing sixth as an 8-1 bid. Derma Sotogake hasn't raced since, but remains a longshot option on Saturday.
"Some people will probably take a shot on a horse like that at 20-1," Avello said.
Proxy
Proxy ran a close second to Bright Future his last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga back in early September.
“People think that horse could be in the mix at 12-1,” Avello said.
Zandon
Here's another horse at 12-1 odds on the morning line that Avello's intrigued by at that price. Zandon scored a victory by more than four lengths in his last start in the Woodward Stakes.
Avello isn't ruling out longshots like Dreamlike and Señor Buscador, either, with both at 30-1 odds on the morning line.
"There’s gonna be upsets this weekend," he said. "That’s for sure, but which races, which days? Is it Friday or Saturday? I don’t know, but I never count anybody out in the Breeders' Cup because these are the best horses in these respective fields.
"Somebody’s gotta be the favorite, somebody’s gotta be the longshot. That doesn’t mean that a higher-priced horse can’t win."
That's what makes it so much fun. Good luck with your Breeders' Cup Classic selections on Saturday.
