Breeders’ Cup Classic fair odds: White Abarrio is still the one

When we started our Breeders' Cup Classic fair-odds journey ahead of the Travers Stakes, White Abarrio was our most likely winner off the strength of his Whitney Stakes win. 

Ten weeks later, his Whitney win is still the fastest by most performance measures including my gold standard, the Ragozin Sheets. Whether White Abarrio can run back to that race off this kind of layoff while stretching back out to 1 1/4 miles on a cross-country ship against some of the best dirt horses in the world is the $6 million question, of course.

The good news is, I think the price will be right to find out. I figure one of Travers Stakes winner Arcangelo, Pacific Classic winner Arabian Knight or Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro will go favored with the others being the second and third choices. That puts White Abarrio as fourth choice, and more importantly well north of our 9-2 fair odds for the Rick Dutrow trainee.

With recent defections, there is also the possibility that Saudi Crown is fourth choice, as the gate-to-wire threat certainly has an easier path to the winner's circle with Geaux Rocket Ride no longer in the race.

Of the longer-priced horses, I expect Zandon to offer some value with fair odds of 10-to-1. He will certainly be higher than that, and with no superstars in this group, a horse going in the right direction with solid recent form can't be overlooked. This is the same vibe with Bright Future but I like Zandon a little better. 

Senor Buscador I'd use on top as a bomb but I'm most interested in him as the vertical key. I like his season to date and have confidence he'll be running late. I had more confidence when the aforementioned pace scenario included Geaux Rocket Ride, but he is so consistent with competitive enough numbers to hit the board at a big price. As we saw last year, even with a 2-5 on top the right longshot underneath (Olympiad) can spice things up nicely.

I'm completely tossing Derma Sotogake, Dreamlike and Missed the Cut. I have a big downgrade on Arabian Knight at the expected price given his performance figures, but he benefits in the same way Saudi Crown does. While I'll have to be wrong if he runs well with other top choices, I absolutely will not let either speed horse beat me if Senor Buscador picks up some pieces.

Fair odds for all 14 Breeders' Cup races will be available as part of the Breeders' Cup Everything Package that also includes Super Screener (available now), Power Picks for all Santa Anita races this weekend, pro reports, sire and track trends. All fair odds will be available by Wednesday morning.