Why a Rory McIlroy return to glory leads last-chance Open picks

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. .

�� The Hot Ticket

Padres at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv

• The Pick: Blue Jays (-120)
• Key trend: The Blue Jays have won eight of their last 10 games.

The Padres were expected to be a World Series contender in 2023, but have been largely underwhelming. Even with a convincing win on Tuesday, I have no problem fading them in this spot.

The Blue Jays were held to six hits and zero extra-base hits in Tuesday's 9-1 loss at the hands of the Padres. That's likely a trend that won't continue, especially with the Padres sending Yu Darvish to the mound on Wednesday. Darvish has been fairly lackluster throughout the 2023 season with a 6-6 record and a 4.65 ERA. The veteran right-hander has surrendered at least four earned runs in three of his last five starts. It also doesn't hurt that the Blue Jays are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball as they have struck out the sixth-fewest times on the year. With a lineup that features the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, and Bo Bichette, it's likely that they'll be able to push quite a few runs across against Darvish and the Padres.

Meanwhile, Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has been exceptional as of late. Over his last two starts, Berrios has looked dominant as he's yielded just one earned run on eight hits across 12 1/3 innings. Berrios has showcased pinpoint control across those two starts with just two walks during that time. In addition, Berrios has enjoyed a stellar month and change as he's allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Look for Berrios to slow down the Padres offense in this one.

⛳Open Championship betting guide

• The Pick: Rory McIlroy (6-1)
• Key trend: McIlroy won the last Open at Royal Liverpool and is coming off his first victory of the season last weekend at the Scottish Open.

With the first round of The Open beginning at 1:30 a.m. ET, the time is now to make your picks for the final major of 2023. No worries: The CBS Sports golf team has you covered with a full set of expert picks and predictions as well as senior writer Kyle Porter's list of the nine golfers most likely to win the Claret Jug. While Porter has Scottie Scheffler atop that latter list, McIlroy is his pick to win his first major in nine years. Why? Here's what Porter had to say:

• Porter: I am (perhaps foolishly) pushing all of my chips to the middle of the table. There are a number of factors you could point to if you wanted to reason why McIlroy will get his fifth major this week, but I keep coming back to this one: At Los Angeles Country Club, he spoke confidently and almost defiantly about winning a major in the future. It's not an air or attitude I've seen him display over the last several years, and it's clearly one that is serving him well as he's coming into this week as the Scottish Open champion. Finally, after nine long, tiring years, the drought will end with Rory once again drinking from the Claret Jug to end a crazy golf summer.

�� More MLB picks

Tigers at Royals, 8:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv

• The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
• Key trend: The under is 7-3 in the Royals last 10 games.

When you've got two of the more disappointing offenses in baseball doing battle, the under has to be the play. I'm even more confident after the two teams exploded for a combined 21 runs in Tuesday's contest. A letdown won't shock me in the slightest. 

The Tigers will be sending left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound, who has been Detroit's most consistent arm thus far. Rodriguez has thrived on the road with just a 2.70 ERA and has yielded two or less runs in each of his last five road starts. On top of that, he'll be facing a Royals offense that has scored the second-fewest runs in the majors ahead of only the Athletics. The Royals have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games, including two contests in which they were shut out.

On the other hand, the Royals will have Ryan Yarbough on the bump. Yarbough's 5.29 ERA may suggest that he could surrender a large amount of runs, but I don't believe that to be the case. The veteran pitcher has been sensational over his last two starts as he's given up just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings as a starter. In fact, Yarbough has coughed up two runs or less in four of his five outings as a starting pitcher on the season. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

Nationals at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv

• The Pick: Kyle Hendricks Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)
• Key trend: Hendricks has at least four strikeouts in four of his last five starts.

While their record isn't exactly stellar, the Nationals are a fairly disciplined team at the plate. However, coming off an abysmal 17-3 loss against the Cubs on Tuesday, I'm banking on them record some strikeouts in this particular spot.

Since making his season debut in late May, Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has been extremely consistent. Hendricks has logged at least six innings in five of his last eight starts, so he should have plenty of time to record a low number of four strikeouts. The veteran right-hander has registered at least four punch-outs in four of his last five outings. In six of his 10 starts this season, Hendricks has reached the four-strikeout mark. Since this is such a low number and Hendricks is an innings eater, his strikeouts prop is the way to go.