Blue Jays odds vs. Padres July 19: Toronto is a slight favourite after dropping series opener

The Toronto Blue Jays had their four-game winning streak snapped last night, and they’ll need a win tonight to avoid a series loss to the San Diego Padres.

The latest: Jose Berrios has allowed just one run over his past two starts but came away with a pair of no-decisions in the process. He’s in much better form lately than his adversary, Yu Darvish, and the Jays are slight favourites on the moneyline.

Blue Jays odds vs. Padres

MLB odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/19/23.

Blue Jays vs. Padres preview

The Alek Manoah experience hit some turbulence last night, and the result was an early hole that Toronto couldn’t climb out of. Offensively, the bats couldn’t wake up against stellar righty Joe Musgrove.

Tonight’s Berrios vs. Darvish matchup skews more in the favour of the Jays, though, especially if you’re looking at recent form.

Splitting Berrios’ 19 starts down the middle (or as close to it as we can), a clear trend emerges:

• First 9 starts: 4.61 ERA, .262 opponent BA, .722 opponent OPS
• Past 10 starts: 2.37 ERA, .217 opponent BA, .647 opponent OPS

Just as important is that the Jays are 8-2 in Berrios’ past 10 starts. They were a mere 4-5 in his first nine.

As for Darvish, the splits are moving in the opposite direction:

• First 8 starts: 3.56 ERA, .222 opponent BA, .689 opponent OPS
• Past 8 starts: 5.86 ERA, .278 opponent BA, .779 opponent OPS

Even with last night’s win, the Padres are just 20-27 on the road this year, which is the sixth-worst record in MLB.

Prop markets

Darvish hasn’t pitched against the Blue Jays since 2017, but he has a fairly pronounced history with a few of their players.

The most successful of the bunch is clearly George Springer, who is 9-for-22 (.409) with two doubles and three homers against the five-time all-star.

Springer singled and scored last night, and he now has at least one hit in eight of nine games.

Manny Machado continued his blazing pace on Tuesday, homering again (his ninth in 13 games) and scoring twice. He now has 19 RBIs, 15 runs and a 1.350 OPS this month.

Berrios has been difficult to back on his strikeouts prop, averaging 5.3 Ks per start over his past 10. In that span, he’s cleared the 5.5-strikeout line four times.

Here are some of the top prop markets for today.

MLB odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET on 07/19/23.