Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Blue Jays' bats were checked by Joe Musgrove last night, and Yu Darvish can do the same tonight. Meanwhile, Toronto turns to Jose Berrios as they try to get back on the beam. Our MLB betting picks believe it will be an uphill battle for both lineups.
The Toronto Blue Jays dropping their series opener to the San Diego Padres was almost too predictable. It was Alek Manoah’s first start in over a month against a real major-league lineup, and it did not go well.
So, the Blue Jays will try to reset in Game 2 in what should be an interesting pitching matchup as Yu Darvish toes the rubber against Jose Berrios. Can Toronto rebound as slight home favorites, or will San Diego steal this interleague series as road dogs?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a juicy same-game parlay in our MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Blue Jays on Wednesday, July 19.
Padres vs Blue Jays odds
Padres vs Blue Jays predictions
The Padres took last night’s opener, 9-1, in a result that felt all too predictable. It was Alek Manoah’s first real start against a big-league lineup since getting sent back down to the minors in early June.
While some calls may not have gone Manoah’s way, he was clearly still battling his control, handing over five free passes while racking up 92 pitches in just three innings of work. San Diego jumped all over him, getting out to a 4-1 lead and never looking back.
And even though the Padres were able to take advantage of Manoah, things should be different tonight. The Jose Berrios bounce-back this season has been a revelation, and frankly, a needed one with the way Manoah has pitched.
Berrios was a little inconsistent over the first month of the season, but he sure has settled down since. The right-hander is pitching to a 2.61 ERA while limiting opponents to a .222 batting average over his last 13 starts. Berrios also has the advantage of pitching at home. He has a 2.83 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over eight starts at the Rogers Centre.
So, while San Diego has plenty of talent, the lineup has clearly underperformed this season. Berrios will pose a much tougher matchup than Manoah. The Padres own the second-lowest batting average in baseball when facing right-handed pitching, and rank 18th in OPS and 15th in wRC+.
Countering Berrios is Yu Darvish and like most of the Padres, 2023 hasn’t gone as planned for him. That said, he has pitched better than his ERA. The right-hander’s expected ERA is sitting at 3.65 while he's limiting opponents to a .368 expected slugging percentage, and he has a solid strikeout rate of 25.9%.
With the way Darvish changes speeds and locations with his large arsenal of pitches, he does a solid job of keeping hitters off balance, even against a solid lineup like the Blue Jays. And we just saw Joe Musgrove do something similar last night, limiting Toronto to one run on five hits over six innings.
On top of that, the Padres and Jays rank 28th and 27th, respectively, in OPS with runners in scoring position. I’m betting the starting pitching will be good enough early on to keep this game close and below the five-inning total.
My best bet: First-five Under 5 (-120 at bet365)
Padres vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
First-five Under 5.5 (-165)
Yu Darvish Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Jose Berrios Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 hits (+185)
Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 hits (+110)
The theme of tonight’s same-game parlay will be backing the starting pitchers to do their thing. So, as always, we start with our best bet. But let’s give ourselves an extra half-run of breathing room by taking the Under 5.5 in the first five innings.
Next, we are adding both Darvish and Berrios to go Over 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup. Darvish has seen his strikeouts go up a tick recently, with a K-rate of 26.9% over his last six starts, recording six or more punchouts in four of those games. And we just saw Musgrove rack up seven Ks vs. the Jays last night.
Berrios has a K-rate of 22.8%, but what he’s got going for him is the innings he pitches. He’s gone into the sixth inning in 16 of his 19 starts, recording six or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts.
Then let’s throw in a couple of guys to have a hitless night, starting with Xander Bogaerts. Another Padre having an up-and-down year. He’s hitting .255 and is just 4-for-23 with seven strikeouts in his career vs. Berrios.
And finally, Under 0.5 hits for a struggling Daulton Varsho. He’s hitting just .215 for the season and is only 4-for-21 in his career vs. Darvish. If all five of these hit, we walk away with a +1,800 payday.
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Padres vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened Game 2 of this matchup as -115 home favorites and have seen a little early action, moving to -120 as of Wednesday afternoon.
While I thought the Blue Jays were getting a little overvalued with Manoah on the mound yesterday, it appears the opposite is happening tonight. As noted above, the pitching matchup looks fairly close, but the Blue Jays’ lineup has been far more consistent. Toronto ranks sixth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
The Jays also have a sizeable edge when it comes to the bullpens, ranking second in xFIP and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings, compared to 21st and 24th for the Padres. I would lean toward the Blue Jays up to -130.
The total hit the board at 9 and that’s where it remains as of writing this. As I’m on the first five Under, I would lean toward the full-game Under as well.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Under on the full-game total in 24 of their last 42 games for +7.65 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Blue Jays
Padres vs Blue Jays game info
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (6-6, 4.65 ERA): The right-hander has been better than his ERA and his first start coming out of the break showed promise, limiting a good Phillies lineup to just one run on five hits while striking out nine over six innings.
Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.41 ERA): Berrios has always been comfortable pitching at the Rogers Centre. The right-hander has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in six of his eight runs at home this season.
