Wild vs Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 October 2023

Wild vs Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Leafs and Wild both got off to starts that shouldn't inspire a ton of confidence, but our NHL picks think the home side will bounce back for a number of reasons tonight — read on to find out why.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The hockey season is in full swing, and the first Saturday night of the season features an intriguing cross-conference matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild.

Both teams collected victories in their season openers, but neither played at their best. Filip Gustavsson bailed out the Wild’s lack of offense with a 41-save shutout, and the Leafs needed a hat trick performance from Auston Matthews to plaster over a sub-par defensive performance that saw five goals trickle into their net.

Will the Wild offense erupt, or will the Leafs tighten up defensively and keep it a low-scoring affair? The NHL odds indicate Toronto should be able to beat the Wild, but in what fashion? Find out in my free NHL picks for this October 14 matchup.

Wild vs Leafs odds

Wild vs Leafs predictions

Despite both clubs being perennial playoff teams every year, Toronto has had much better success in this matchup. The Leafs are 4-0-1 against Minnesota in the Sheldon Keefe era, holding the Wild to just one goal in three of those contests.

In fact, scoring was an issue for Minnesota throughout the entire 2022–23 season. Last year, the Wild ranked 29th in goals at 5-on-5, averaging just 2.2 G/60. They didn’t do too well on the man advantage either; they dropped off even more on the road, operating at a 16.1% clip, which ranked 29th in the league. That’s not a recipe for success.

It’s not like the Wild showed any improvement in their season opener against Florida either. According to Natural Stat-Trick, the Wild gave up 27 scoring chances at 5-on-5, with 11 of them being of the high-danger variety. How many high-grade 5-on-5 chances did Minnesota generate? The answer is two. Two high-danger chances. The Wild are simply not going to score many goals like that.

So, why do I have faith in Toronto coming through on this play?

Firstly, I believe the Maple Leafs are built to match up better against a team like Minnesota than Montreal. The Leafs struggled with the speed of the Canadiens at times Wednesday night, especially in transition and off the rush. That's how Montreal scored half its goals. Minnesota is less of a threat that way because the team plays at a slower pace. I’ve long believed that Toronto looks more like a cup contender when they play a tight 3-1 hockey game than the 6-5 track meet.

Second, let’s take a look at Ilya Samsonov’s record at Scotiabank Arena. Sure, he gave up five in a tough outing the other night, but last year, he posted a 1.98 GAA with a. 927SV% in 25 home starts. I’ll take that sample size over the one-off night against Montreal. The defensive lapses held a lot of blame for that anyway.

Plus, in his lone start against Minnesota last year, he stopped 24-of-25 shots en route to a 2-1 win in overtime.

A bounceback for both units is due.

My best bet: Wild TT Under 2.5 (+100 at SIA)

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Wild vs Leafs same-game parlay

Wild U 2.5
Matthews anytime goal
Maple Leafs moneyline (+240)

For tonight’s same-game parlay, I like for the Leafs to come out victorious while keeping the Wild offense at bay.

I think Minnesota is going Under on the 2.5-goal mark. They’re a team that struggles to score and generate offense. I also anticipate the Leafs tightening up their defensive structure. That should only make scoring even more difficult for the Wild.

I’m also a fan of the Maple Leafs moneyline tonight. It's a favorable matchup on the ice and on the bench. Furthermore, Toronto is 3-0 as the home favorite in the last three meetings. I think the streak stretches to four.

With the final leg of my parlay, I’m going with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. He’s got seven goals in 10 games against the Wild throughout his career and already looks in mid-season shooting form after recoding the NHL’s first hat trick of the season the other night.

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Wild vs Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Wild opened up as the road dogs (+145) in this matchup, and the line hasn’t moved much since. Toronto is the home favorite (-175), and rightfully so after sweeping the season series last year and boasting the more potent lineup.

Additionally, Toronto is 4-1 on the moneyline against the Wild in the Sheldon Keefe era, and I believe there’s a strong likelihood that success continues Saturday night.

The Over/Under goal total for this game is set at 6.5, with both sides paying -110. It’s worth noting that there has been slight movement here as the over opened at -115. Perhaps the sharp money is looking at the history of this matchup and noting that six goals or less have been scored in four of the last six meetings.