Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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16 October 2023

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Maple Leafs offense — and Auston Matthews in particular — has been red hot to start the 2023 campaign and we don't see that stopping against Connor Bedard and the visiting Blackhawks tonight. Read our full NHL breakdown to find out why.

There are five games on the NHL slate tonight, with none more intriguing than the matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks.

This matchup has been extremely entertaining over the years, as Auston Matthews and Patrick Kane seemed to elevate each other every time they faced off. Can rookie phenom Connor Bedard have the same effect?

NHL odds indicate a lot of goals are expected in this game, but is it going to be the Bedard show in T.O. or will Matthews continue to re-establish himself as the league's most dangerous sniper?

Perhaps two things can be true. Find out in my free NHL picks for this October 16 affair.

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs odds

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Chicago Blackhawks enter tonight on a two-game losing streak, scoring just three times combined in those contests. That doesn’t bode well for Chicago as they face off against an undefeated Toronto Maple Leafs squad that has scored 12 goals through two games.

The Leafs have Auston Matthews to thank for a lot of that offense — half of it, to be exact. He became the first Leafs player to record back-to-back hat tricks since Wendel Clark did it in 1994. You take his torrid start with his career dominance over Chicago and I fully expect Toronto's offense to be too much for Chicago tonight.

The Leafs are 3-1 against the Blackhawks in the post-pandemic era and have outscored them 16-13 over that stretch. High-scoring games have been the norm in this matchup. Matthews has seven career goals in 12 games against the Hawks, while Nylander has nine tallies in 11 contests.

However, with Chicago now in rebuild mode, I’m not so sure they can play keep-up with the Leafs anymore.

Last season, the Blackhawks were dead last in scoring, averaging just 2.48 goals per game. Sure, Connor Bedard will help them better that number in some capacity, but not nearly enough to close the gap with Toronto’s offense which is firing on all cylinders. Couple that with the Blackhawks' lackluster defensive play so far this season and that may not bode well for Chicago.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Blackhawks have the sixth-worst shot discrepancy in the league and give up the fifth-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Those types of looks and opportunities will have the Leafs salivating when they hit the ice.

Add in a potent Leafs power play that’s had a 57% success rate so far this season against last year’s 22nd-ranked penalty kill, and I like the Leafs' chances to score often and win big at home.

My best bet: Leafs -1.5 (-150 at SIA)

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Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Leafs -1.5

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Connor Bedard anytime goalscorer

For tonight’s same-game parlay, I expect a high offensive output from the Leafs, including a third straight game where Matthews lights the lamp.

Toronto’s offense is off to a scorching hot start. After a five-goal outing on opening night, the Leafs netted seven as an encore against Minnesota. Chicago is a rebuilding franchise that lacks talent and goal-scoring — Bedard aside — and Toronto should easily outplay them. Take the puck line (-1.5) as the first leg of the parlay.

Next up, we have an anytime goal from Matthews. Expecting a third straight night with a trio of goals may be a little much, but given his strong track record against Chicago, there’s no reason to think he doesn’t have a chance to pop at least one into the net tonight.

We’ll round out the same-game parlay by taking Bedard to score an anytime goal. He’s still sitting with just one goal on the season, but he’s shooting like a madman and leads the NHL in individual expected goals. With all eyes on this matchup tonight, I think he gets one to fall.

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Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs enter tonight as the heavy favorites (-350) with Chicago paying +280 if they can pull off an upset as the road dog. That’s probably a little too high of a price to pay to take Toronto. However, this matchup has gone to extra time just once since 2018, and the price for the Leafs to win in regulation has a little more value at -225.

The books are expecting a high-scoring game, with the Over/Under climbing to 7. You’ll have to pay a little juice to get the Under (-135), which is why the value now lies with the Over (+110).

Considering 7+ goals have been scored in seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams, with an average of 8.5 goals combined in those games, the Over may be worth a sprinkle.