Stars vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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07 February 2024

Stars vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Auston Matthews has been the one constant for the Maple Leafs this season, and with Jake Oettinger getting the night off, our NHL odds are expecting AM34 to build on his goal lead tonight against Dallas.

We’ve got eight games on the NHL docket tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Dallas Stars and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Auston Matthews has had immense success in his career against Dallas, and the NHL odds like that to continue with Toronto favored to get back into the win column tonight.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Stars vs. Maple Leafs on February 7.

Stars vs Maple Leafs odds

Stars vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stars meet for the second and final time this regular season. In the earlier October 26 affair, the Leafs defeated Dallas 4-1 in Texas.

Since then, however, the Stars have gone on to play Stanley Cup contending hockey, whereas the Leafs are still playing with a level of inconsistencies that has coach Sheldon Keefe baffled.

"We've got a good team here, good players. As a staff, we need to do a better job with them and recognize our own role in getting the team to play to its potential,” Keefe suggested. “I would say in about 50% of the games, we've been really good. [But] that's not enough."

That is true. The team lacks consistency, which has made them a frustrating team to bet on this season. That said, the lone constant that remains for Toronto through the roller coaster of a year is Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring touch.

Thus, an anytime goal from the Leafs sniper seems like a good bet tonight. Not only is Matthews leading the league with 40 tallies this season, he’s also recorded seven goals over his last seven games. Plus, he’s been a big-time thorn in the side of the Stars his entire career. Through 10 games against Dallas, Matthews has recorded nine goals.

The schedule also lends favorably to this wager due to the fact the Stars are on night two of a back-to-back and will be starting Scott Wedgewood in goal instead of their All-Star netminder Jake Oettinger.

Wedgewood’s career numbers against the Leafs are not pleasant. He's 1-2-2 with a 3.95 GAA, and an .877 SV% in five games against his hometown team, allowing Matthews to get the best of him four times in those contests.

Additionally, one stat that sticks out to me this season when it comes to the Stars is the team high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5, which sits 30th in the NHL at a lowly .788%.

Wedgewood’s is even a tad lower than that, which should bode well for AM34, as he ranks seventh in the league in shots from those high-danger spots according to NHL Edge.

My best bet: Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (-110 at SIA)

Stars vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Leafs to score first

Over 5.5

I like for the Leafs to score the first goal of the hockey game. Firstly, you’d hope they take advantage of a team that played the night before, especially after the coach ripped into the group for playing up to its potential in 50% of its games. One would assume that’ll motivate the group to come out of the gate hot.

Plus, Toronto has scored first 26 times this season, and the Stars have allowed the first goal in more games than they’ve been able to get the opening goal themselves.

For my final leg, let’s roll with an alternate total and take the Over of 5.5 goals. Both of these teams average well over three goals per game. With Dallas going with a backup in net on night two of a back-to-back and the lack of confidence in the Leafs' defensive zone coverage, we should expect a high-scoring game.

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Stars vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -135 favorites, with the Stars +110 road dogs. The Leafs have fared well against this team lately, winning five straight meetings and eight of the last 10. Toronto also gets the benefit of being better rested, with Dallas playing its second game in as many nights.

The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals, shading slightly toward the Over at -115, as the the Under is getting -105 odds. As I stated in my SGP, I do expect a higher-scoring game with both sides being able to put the puck in the back of the net, combining for 7.08 goals per game and 6.19 goals against.

Additionally, the combined record of the Over this year between the Leafs and Stars is 56-40-2.