World Baseball Classic 2023 odds: how to bet on Japan vs. Mexico, choice by experts
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB betting analyst
If you’re still aching from betting on the Dominican Republic to win the World Baseball Classic, hopefully you haven’t tried to make amends by investing in Puerto Rico. This part of the bracket was almost as shocking as any other moment in WBC history.
Sure, Mexico has star power like Randy Arozarena and Julio Urías, but for Joey Meneses and Rowdy Tellez to become the stars of the WBC, it may be fitting to call them a “Team of Destiny.”
Their toughest test, however, will be in a quarter-final against the current favorite in Japan on Monday night in Miami. No team has a higher OPS (.996) or a lower ERA (1.80).
So, how should we bet on it? Odds are courtesy of FOX Bet.
Mexico vs Japan at LoanDepot Park, Miami, Monday 7 p.m. ET, FS1 and FOX Sports app
Point spread: No line available
Money Line: Japan -213 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Mexico +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total score over/under: No line available
Due to the number of pitches and MLB commitments, there may be more factors than usual for managers to consider when choosing starters. Thus, we probably saw the last of Shohei Ohtani on the mound in the WBC. Since he is scheduled to be the Los Angeles Angels’ Opening Day starter on March 30, it would be too close to that game if he pitched in the semifinals or finals, so Ohtani was always expected to be the quarterfinal starter .
Instead, 21-year-old Roki Sasaki will start for Team Japan. To put his previous WBC start into perspective, of 66 throws, 21 were clocked at over 100 mph! When someone so young can throw that hard, stamina may be the last thing to worry about.
Shohei Ohtani & Japan vs Mexico World Baseball Classic Semifinals Preview
Ben Verlander and Alex Curry bring you everything you need to know about the semifinals between Team Japan and Team Mexico. Roki Sasaki will be on the mound for Team Japan.
Mexico hasn’t seen that kind of flamethrower too often in the WBC, except in the opener against Colombia. Guillermo Zuniga was able to hit 102 mph, went two strong innings, struck out four and gave up only one hit. It was the only game that Mexico has lost so far this tournament (5-4).
Mexico’s pitching will begin with Patrick Sandoval, an Angels left-hander who relies on a float who was in the top 20 in run value last season (-8), and he’s also a magician whose spin on his curveball finished in the 87th percentile in MLB final season. He’s second in the Angels rotation for a reason, behind Ohtani (that matchup in this game will be sensational).
Even if Sandoval can get through three or four turns unscathed, Japan seems to have an answer for everything. Masataka Yoshida had some hard hit balls against Italy, Kensuke Kondoh found ways to be productive with extra-basehits and walks, and of course Ohtani was his usual elite self with an OBP of .625. The mix of MLB talent and young stars from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league is so well-mixed that they can afford to be patient until they can pounce on an unlucky reliever.
If you want another reason to support the favorites, Yu Darvish, one of the more world-famous pitchers on their staff, came out of the bullpen in the quarterfinals. Japan wanted to make sure there was no way Italy could make a serious comeback. You know a pitching staff runs deep when one of the most dangerous pitchers in MLB this season was the set up man. As you might expect, Darvish was effective, allowing one earned run in two innings of work.
Mexico has been a fantastic story as far as they’ve ever made it to this WBC. However, my first choice to win this tournament has given me no reason to avoid them now, especially if the payout is favorable. Traveling the world doesn’t bother me. Facing a “Team of Destiny” doesn’t scare me either.
I’m betting on Japan on the money line.
SELECT: Japan (-213 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, most notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas, covering the Rangers, Cowboys, and high school football. Follow him on Twhiter @EdWithSports.
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