MLB parlay picks April 10: Bet on Ohtani to score a run
There are 14 MLB games going on Monday, and we’re drawing on a few of them for a three-leg parlay.
The pregame narrative: The Phillies have fared surprisingly well when the Marlins’ ace is on the mound, so we’re giving Philadelphia some breathing room on the run line tonight. We’re also fading offence in a battle of National League aces while backing Shohei Ohtani to score against a dreadful pitcher.
MLB odds as of 11:40 a.m. ET on 04/10/23.
MLB parlay picks
Parlay: Phillies +2 + Padres/mets under 9.5 runs + Ohtani 1+ runs (+280)
Phillies +2 (-225): Few teams have found success against reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, but Philadelphia is an exception to the rule.
The Phillies went 4-2 against the Marlins in Alcantara’s starts last year, and they cashed on this line in all six games.
There was nothing wrong with the right-hander’s numbers against the Phillies last year — 3.16 ERA, 1.148 WHIP — but they were nowhere near his usual dominance. And for a Miami team that’s outmatched on the offensive side of things, that can be a problem.
The Phillies covered this line in 16 of 19 games against the Marlins last year. In 2023, Philly has covered as +2 underdogs five times in a row entering tonight’s matchup.
Other picks
Padres/Mets under 9.5 runs (-265): Max Scherzer hasn’t gotten off to the start he wanted, with eight runs allowed in his first two outings (6.35 ERA). But with Padres starter Yu Darvish on the other side, this has the makings of a big-time pitchers’ duel.
Last year, Darvish and the Padres earned a 4-1 win over Scherzer’s Mets. Darvish had faced the Mets once previously in the season, too, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 win.
Dating back to the start of last season, this under has cashed in 24 of Darvish’s 31 starts (77.4%). Also, these teams have combined to go under this number in 13 of 20 games to begin the ‘23 campaign.
http://online.northstarbets.ca/page?key=ej0xMzUzNDc2NCZsPTEzNTM0Nzg5JnA9MTcxMjg%3D&utm_source=thestar&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=NorthStarBetsawareness2023_NorthStarBets_&utm_content=custom/tracking_textlink https://online.northstarbets.ca/page?key=ej0xMzUzNDYwNCZsPTEzNTM0NjAyJnA9MTczMzk%3D&utm_source=thestar&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=NorthStarBetsawareness2023_NorthStarBets_&utm_content=custom/tracking_textlink https://online.northstarbets.ca/page?key=ej0xMzUzNTAyMCZsPTEzNTM1MDE4JnA9MTczNDA%3D&utm_source=thestar&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=NorthStarBetsawareness2023_NorthStarBets_&utm_content=custom/tracking_textlink https://online.northstarbets.ca/page?key=ej0xMzUyOTAwNCZsPTEzNTI4OTgzJnA9MTczMzc%3D&utm_source=thestar&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=NorthStarBetsawareness2023_NorthStarBets_&utm_content=custom/tracking_textlink" rel="nofollow"> Ohtani 1+ runs (-112): Tacking on a hit for Ohtani (-265) would push this well into plus-money territory, but we’re looking for something with a bit higher upside.
And against the statistically worst pitcher in baseball, that doesn’t feel like a huge ask.
Nationals starter Patrick Corbin has the highest ERA (6.40) and the highest opponent batting average (.324) among all pitchers since the start of 2022. He’s only faced the Angels once (in 2018, and he didn’t match up with Ohtani), but that familiarity likely won’t be a factor here.
Ohtani, coming off a three-run game, has scored seven times in nine appearances this season. He also has an impressive .436 on-base percentage and should have a solid opportunity to score with Corbin on the hill.
